TB vaccine is 100 years old--and it's not 100%; and flu season is coming

 Although we have the BCG vaccine for TB, it isn't 100% and other public health measures are necessary to control the disease. Killing nearly 1.5 million people in 2019, it stood as the leading global cause of death from an infectious pathogen, according to the World Health Organization. Do not expect the Covid vaccine to be perfect or 100%.

 Bile and Potatoes, 1921 | The Scientist Magazine® (the-scientist.com)

Although masks don't provide much protection against Covid19, they really help during flu season. I plan to mask up for that. And the flu will probably be baaaack with a vengeance this fall and winter.
"In the United States alone, influenza viruses cause hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of fatalities each year. During the pandemic, however, a drastic change occurred: there was a precipitous drop in infections with influenza and other respiratory viruses—and in some parts of the world, some of these pathogens are nowhere to be found.

. . . Mask wearing, social distancing, and other restrictions implemented to stave off SARS-CoV-2 are thought to be the primary culprits in the decline in other respiratory pathogens in circulation. As such measures are lifted, though, scientists are expecting the missing viruses to return—and are pondering what will happen when that occurs. " The Pandemic Crushed the Flu--What Happens When It Returns? | The Scientist Magazine® (the-scientist.com)

Johns Hopkins has to discipline young researcher

Using statistical analysis, a senior lecturer from Johns Hopkins University (JHU) has demonstrated that COVID-19 has resulted in no excess deaths, yet the university has censored the article online. And the fact checkers are all over this. She concluded that the deaths of “older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19.” This finding was contrary to expectation: “Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.”

So in a rush to woke, JH has pulled her article and declared it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. " The author was "just" a master's candidate in economics, not a "real" doctor. She didn't do it right. One more career down the drain in the fight for truth. Even science can't compete with woke.

If you've never visited an elderly friend or relative in the winter/spring season of flu, you perhaps don't realize that nursing homes often have quarantines and that perhaps 50,000 in the over 65 population died from the flu in 2017-18. Also, the elderly die disproportionately from falls, and pneumonia. I can see that the lockdowns in retirement homes, and with relatives taking extra care of their elders, deaths from other causes may be down even if Covid deaths are up. Many more children died of the flu in 2017 than of Covid in 2020. Again, that may be the extra precautions and schools closing.

Not a single business was closed during the flu season of 2017-18, and the economy roared. But I do think we'll have an excess number of deaths due to all the missed doctor's appointments and vaccinations in 2020, also suicides and depression which can lead to fatalities.

Flu, pneumonia and falls

From October 2018 through early May 2019, up to 61,200 people died due to flu complications, while up to 647,000 people were hospitalized, according to preliminary estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). During the 2017-2018 flu season, approximately 900,000 people were hospitalized and 80,000 people died due to flu complications. (Prevention website)

Every 19 minutes, an older adult dies from a fall. Falls are the leading cause of fatal injury and the most common cause of nonfatal trauma-related hospital admissions among older adults. 50,000/year.  Those who are hospitalized often die of pneumonia.

So let's guestimate that about 150,000 older adults die each fall/winter season from just these 3 problems, and maybe a million are hospitalized plus thousands of younger people who are also susceptible at a lower rate because they may have preexisting conditions like heart, lung, kidney problems, or do silly things like climb ladders to clean gutters. Only the family and friends care when they die--they mourn their losses and pay the bills. We cry and share stories about grandma or the neighbor who used to help us out with maintenance or walking the dog. We spend hours settling estates and packing up or distributing the earthly wealth of those we loved. We give away watches from the retirement gala, the jewelry box, and old Bibles. We personally have the gold pocket watches of both Bob's father and grandfather, we have my grandmother's hymn book from her college days in the 1890s, and my grandfather's 11th, 12th and 13th editions of Encyclopedia Britannica. We know how they died and it wasn't a pandemic, but was from common problems of aging. But we didn't close up shop, we didn't deny medical care to others for different, less fatal causes, we didn't stop having Easter services, and we didn't destroy our pensions and equity in our homes because maybe 200,000 people died of illnesses that had been with us since the people made a golden calf to worship just in case Moses got it wrong.

https://www.prevention.com/health/health-conditions/a22813625/flu-symptoms-prevention/

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

Let’s put Coronavirus in perspective

“Approximately one in four U.S. residents aged ≥65 years (older adults) report falling each year, and fall-related emergency department visits are estimated at approximately 3 million per year. In 2016, a total of 29,668 U.S. residents aged ≥65 years died as the result of a fall (age-adjusted rate^† = 61.6 per 100,000), compared with 18,334 deaths (47.0) in 2007.”  Imagine if that were a virus. The media are stoking a pandemic, and saying Trump isn’t doing enough, when he’s done a lot about a job that isn’t is.  However, I’ve never heard him comment on falls.  CDC MMWR https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6718a1.htm

“In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 19 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).” Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

Have you heard the president admonishing people to wash their hands and covering their sneezes? Has he appointed an influenza czar? Or a Fall General?

On March 15-20, 2009,  about 170 of us from the Columbus area returned from the Middle East. About 20 of us got sick on the way home. Some got sick after arriving home--some 2 or 3 days later with fever, aches and chills. It took about 4 weeks for my GI track to return to normal, although I didn't go to the hospital. Still I was lying on the floor of the airport for several hours, and someone had to get me to the front of the line at customs. I'm just thankful it wasn't during this scare.

Is Coronavirus hype by the media?”

“So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed 2019-nCoV, has led to more than 20,000 illnesses and 427 deaths in China, as well as more than 200 illnesses and two deaths outside of mainland China. But that’s nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 19 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).”

Scientific American, January 27, 2020  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

Rush Limbaugh opined today that the media are looking for the next “bombshell” to bring down President Trump.  If it has to be a panic over a virus or an economic recession, so be it—they hate him that much. In India, the President said the U.S. had the situation well in hand, but we are vigilant.  The media responded predictably—well, he lies so maybe he is lying again. One opinion-maker observed that Obama during the Ebola crisis had taken a world view.  Trump does not see himself has world manager or king.  Maybe Obama did. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/479301-trump-says-us-has-coronavirus-totally-under-control

That said, the media need to do some research on the old fashioned, annual flu which changes and evolves each year. They never say much about it because it’s many the elderly and immune compromised.   I got my flu shot, did you?

And some media wonk complained that Trump’s gathering of coronavirus medical experts wasn’t diverse enough.  I think it was CNN, which has if photos don’t lie, an all white editorial board.

Watch for these symptoms

Flu symptoms for adults

• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
• Sudden dizziness
• Confusion
• Severe or persistent vomiting
• Flu-like symptoms that improve but then return with fever and worse cough—This is VERY important.  You think you’ve turned the corner, but you’ll fall in a hole.

Speaking of the flu, as everyone is on the news

It takes more than a village to control animal influenza. Below is a list of agencies and participants in the Ohio State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine, Animal influenza ecology and epidemiology and research program.

• Arkansas Natural Resources Commission
• Bellrose Waterfowl Research Center
• Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control
• Emiquon Nature Conservatory
• Illinois Department of Natural Resources
• Indiana State Board of Animal Health
• Iowa Department of Natural Resources
• J. Craig Venter Institute
• Maryland DNR - Fish & Wildlife Health Program
• Maryland DNR - Wildlife and Heritage Service
• Michigan Department of Natural Resources
• Mississippi State University College of Veterinary Medicine
• Mississippi State University Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture
• Missouri Department of Conservation
• Missouri Department of Agriculture
• NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS)
• NIH - NIAID Laboratory of Infectious Diseases
• Ohio Department of Agriculture
• Ohio Department of Health
• Ohio Department of Natural Resources
• Ohio Sea Grant
• OSU Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology
• OSU Extension
• OSU School of Environment and Natural Resources
• Purdue Extension
• University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)
• University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine
• USDA ARS Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory
• USDA APHIS Wildlife Services
• USDA APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratorie (NVSL)
• USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)
• USFWS Division of Migratory Bird Management
• USFWS Waterfowl Survey
• USFWS National Wildlife Refuge System
• USGS National Wildlife Health Center
• Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources