191 Predictions for 2004

I don’t often pay attention to full page ads in the Wall Street Journal, but “10 surprises of the New Year 2004” in yesterday’s paper did catch my eye. It’s Morgan Stanley’s predictions, but with somewhat more credibility than a crystal ball. The full list can be found at the about Morgan Stanley Web site, which for some reason has the odd date, January 5, 2003, even though it contains all the summaries for 2003 and predictions for 2004. Some webmaster didn’t update correctly, I guess. I’ve sent them an e-mail about this boo-boo. so it might be fixed by now.

1. Osama will be found.
2. Productivity continues to improve.
3. Stock market remains strong.
4. Mutual fund questionable practices will drop from the news.
5. Euro weakens.
6. Pharmaceuticals outperform.
7. Conditions in Saudi Arabia deteriorate--energy stocks outperform.
8. Silver becomes precious metal of choice, $8/oz, gold ascends to $500.
9. Japan’s economy picks up.
10. And here’s the big surprise prediction, in my opinion: Bill Frist will replace Dick Cheney on the ticket. Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz resign, saying their work is done.

Bill Frist was my top choice with Condi Rice for the Republican ticket in 2008, but I never thought about him for VP in 2004. This would be a good leg up on the campaign against Hillary in 2008, wouldn't it?

190 ASAP at the dentist's office

Time is a funny thing. My dentist is 50 years old. Some of my fillings are older than he is. A visit to the dentist 50 years ago seems like yesterday, and reading about the tech boom of the 90s seems like 50 years ago.

I pulled a magazine from a stack to read at the dentist’s office where I was having a filing replaced. ASAP October 4, 1999. I was stunned to realize that I hadn’t even thought about what used to be one of my favorite sources of dreams about the future of technology since, well, about mid-2000. It's now so . . . yesterday! I used to read ASAP cover to cover--and until I saw the date, I hadn’t even realized it was gone. Who could forget the Happiness Issue? (Actually, I’ve forgotten all the content, but not the concept.)

By the mid-nineties when I started reading it, it was an excellent tech magazine, very readable even for the non-geek like me. And I loved George Gilder--although, truthfully now that I look back, he really did write strange English. The ads were absolutely lush--encrusted with good taste and dripping with money. Kurt Vonnegut, Tom Wolfe, Muhammad Ali, Tom Peters and George Gilder are in the issue I look at while my face goes numb from chin to eyebrow.

Our accounts started to do that (go numb) in summer 2000, my TIAA-CREF account held its ground only because my 15% contributions covered up the fact it was losing money. So don’t tell me Bush did it. The over heated tech stocks burned up. Three years after the date on this 1999 issue, October 4, 2002, Forbes announced ASAP was shutting down.

“During a period when blind optimism got the better of so many, no one was more blithely optimistic about our wired future than Gilder. Beginning in the mid-'90s, he advanced the argument that the businesses which most aggressively embrace fiber optics, wireless communication, and other telecommunications breakthroughs would soar in the meteoric fashion of an Intel. It was Gilder, as much as anyone, who helped trigger the hundreds of billions of dollars invested to create competing fiber networks. Then everything imploded, and company after company went under. The telecom sector proved to be an even greater financial debacle than the dotcoms. Yet he's still convinced he was dead-on right in most of his prognostications.” Wired, July 2002.

George Gilder got side swiped by his own enthusiasm and lost a lot of money in a new publishing venture. However, his predictions, made in the mid-nineties about the future of high speed internet seem to be coming true, just a little later than he thought. Particularly that one about overthrowing the tyranny of the mass media, which bloggers seem to be doing, 5 or 6 million strong. Of course, he was wrong about world peace. . .

189 Piso Mojado

Last fall I watched as a man spilled a full cup of coffee at the bakery where I read the paper in the morning. It went all over the white tablecloth, the floor, his shoes and pants. He just stood there and looked at the mess. Another man standing behind him, looked too; both seemed paralyzed. Then the second guy went over to the counter and picked up a stack of napkins and brought them back to help clean it up. It was like emptying the ocean with a teaspoon. The customer who spilled it was still staring at the huge brown puddle on the floor and eating the free samples.

So I got up and took matters into my own hands since men aren’t accustomed to cleaning up after themselves, and suggested they call for staff to come and clean it up. Which they did, and soon the table with the free samples was tidy again with a clean linen cloth.

Monday morning I too spilled a full cup sitting at my table. But I didn’t waste any time, and told the staff immediately. It was mopped up before I could get back to my table with a fresh cup. Always call the expert. So I drank my coffee with a bright yellow caution sign in two languages at my feet.

188 Signed up for Spanish

I am planning to take another Spanish class this winter, but not so I can converse with illegal immigrants who supposedly take jobs that Americans don’t want. I am gobsmacked, as the Brits say, by this policy. Bush is sounding more like a Democrat every day. And spending money on domestic programs like one.

“Bush will try to make the plan more palatable to conservatives by including stricter entry controls, including increased use of technology at the border and steps toward better enforcement of current visa restrictions and reporting requirements, sources said,“ Washington Post 12-24-03. If such controls and technology are available, why aren’t we using them now? We’ve got the laws on the books.

I doubt that it will help him much with the Latino vote. They think it is a plot to get them registered for deportation. And, actually, that would make more sense. How many conservatives will just throw up their hands and abandon him like they did his father when he didn’t keep his word. It’s important to remember that unlike Democrats, Republicans do not sing along that country and western song, “Stand by your man.”

Poor people who work really don’t pay Federal Income Taxes, so there is no benefit there. But they do pay Payroll taxes, or Social Security. That makes them recipients of the benefits, too. I’m not eligible for social security benefits because I have a teacher’s pension. These workers, non-citizens and here illegally, will be.

187 Free at last

In 13 states, including Ohio, grandparents are required to care for their grandchildren of minor children. Some do it just for love.

Saturday’s paper told of the death of a great-grandmother who was raising 5 of her great-grandchildren--3 orphaned and 2 abandoned by their mother. Elizabeth Mitchell Dulaney shot and wounded a drug dealer as an armed gang broke into her home and threatened her little family in 2002. She had tipped off the police to an illegal pill operation apparently angering the gang. For her service to her family and neighborhood, she got a 3 1/2 year prison sentence, which was later commuted by the Governor after the Columbus Dispatch's readers lobbied on her behalf.

But she wanted a pardon, which didn't come before her death at age 68. An advocate is trying to get one for her posthumously so she can be buried with it, "Free at last."

186 Sex and the City

I’ve never seen an episode of “Sex and the City,” starring Sarah Jessica Parker. Reading about the angst and grief as the last episodes air on HBO makes me think I haven’t missed much. The USA Today article was up-beat and flattering, intended to hype the frenzy. Fantasies about shoes, potty mouth women, loser boyfriends, sleeping around, STDs, abortion, zingers. It really sounds special, doesn’t it? And friendships. Oh yes, that’s supposed to be a big part of the hoopla. Gilda Carle described the show as four empty women who use sex as a tool.

Even cleaned up for reruns on TBS in syndication, it doesn’t look like a bargain to me, that is if Time really is money.

185 I am Maid Wright

For Christmas I received a Frank Lloyd Wright letter opener, a Frank Lloyd Wright necklace, a Frank Lloyd Wright broach, and Frank Lloyd Wright stationery in a box decorated with a Frank Lloyd Wright design.

From other Christmases, I have a Frank Lloyd Wright mouse pad, a Frank Lloyd Wright door mat, a Frank Lloyd Wright China snack set for four (Imperial Hotel), a Frank Lloyd Wright coffee cup, three Frank Lloyd Wright necklaces, two Frank Lloyd Wright throw pillows (theatre curtain and May basket), two Frank Lloyd Wright cotton coverlets (water lilies and Heurtley House), two boxes of Frank Lloyd Wright blank note cards, seven Frank Lloyd Wright lapel pins (studio, windows, Guggenheim, April showers), six Frank Lloyd Wright scarves, a Frank Lloyd Wright umbrella and tote bag, a Frank Lloyd Wright mantle clock, a Frank Lloyd Wright China keepsake box, a Frank Lloyd Wright engagement calendar.

My husband is an architect.

184 Oddities of our times

While waiting for the doctor, I noticed an advertisement for smoking shelters in the magazine "Hospitals and Health Networks."

My toothpast tube says "squeeze from the middle."

Bacon is a diet food.

A teen-ager, home schooled on the ranch, has the #4 best seller in the country for fiction, and a Christian title, The Purpose Driven Life is #2 in non-fiction.

The word "ubiquity" has become ubiquitous.

I can fly to Frankfurt Germany cheaper than to Bradenton, Florida.

Businesses are trying to lure young mothers back to work.

DVDs packaged in fold-outs look like books, stand up like books, open like books, and have covers like books.

The Endangered Species Act in 30 years has only removed 30 species from its endangered list. Where else but in America would this be considered a success?

5,000 Americans die each year of food borne illnesses, but none have ever died of, or even had, Mad Cow Disease.

Wired Magazine increasingly carries articles about wireless.

Ticket prices are up, but revenues are down at the movie box office.

183 Take no responsibility

In today's paper, I noticed the following story lines:

"Police searching for a car they think is responsible for the death of a 16 year old girl."

"Man killed by gunshot."

"Soft drinks lead to obesity."

"Buns to reopen [restaurant in Delaware, OH]

182 A picture is worth. . .

The Columbus Dispatch today carried a large photo of two young East High school boys at the door of the gym. In the hall, both sides, in front of the doors were soft drink machines. One young man, lean and carrying a gym bag, was going into the gym. The other one, overweight with no gym bag, was leaning over retrieving his soda.

In the 1950s in my high school we had a milk machine. For 2 cents we could get a small carton of milk (subsidized apparently, because even then that was cheap). I rarely used it, but if you were hungry, it was better than nothing.

Cokes, with a dollop of cherry or chocolate were for giggling and gossiping with your friends at Felker's Drug Store after school. One can of pop has more sugar than an entire day's recommended amount. According to the article, many kids drink three or four a day.

181 Howard Dean and his good friend, God

Don't you just wish Howard Dean would forget trying to sound religious? I'm embarrassed for him, and I don't even like him!

William Safire reported the other day that Dean was trying to make a point about how he reads the Bible and he had the story of Job in the New Testament and said it had a bad ending which probably wasn't the original. Then Christopher Buckley in an article "In God he trusts," said he Googled "Dean + God" and got 49,201 hits on the internet--mostly Dean taking His name in vain--goddamnit, God knows, and goddamn.

Then he said something about the hallmark of Christianity being how you treat your fellow man (good works). Nonsense. The moral and ethical teachings of Christ were all from Judiaism. The hallmark of Christianity is the person and work of Jesus Christ.

No wonder he left his church over a bikepath. He doesn't know enough about Christianity to chose a better reason. He should go back to winning the Bible Belt with talking about Confederate flags--he couldn't do worse.

Update: In the Jan. 9 Wall Street Journal, Geoffrey Norman has an article "God and Green Mountains." He points out that discussing one's faith in Vermont, Dean's home state, would be vulgar. But when going after the bubba vote, saying that Jesus is your inspiration just won't cut it. Football players and NASCAR drivers are an inspiration; Jesus is the Redeemer.

180 Cite your sources, please!

Newspapers running the New York Times Syndicate (Jan. 5, 2004) carried stories about how antidepressants affect the brain as compared to cognitive behavior therapy. The antidepressants reduce activity in the emotional center, and the therapy quiets the cortex, the area of higher thought.

I read it in the Wall Street Journal and made a few notes so I could look it up. I do prefer to read the original research of break through health information and if newspapers, consumer health magazines and websites were kind enough to actually site their sources, I could do that. But they don’t. This was a huge frustration when I was a librarian--people would bring in an article that cited “last month” or an acronym for a journal, or just “recent studies show.”

I went to the web first to see if the article were available on-line. My first time scanning the contents of January 2004 Archives of General Psychiatry, I missed the title (didn’t have a correct title to work from) and I hadn’t written down the authors names mentioned in the article. So I did a Google search and found the syndicate article from the Boston Globe and picked up two of the authors names and the clue that it was a Canadian study.

“[Helen] Mayberg, a professor of psychiatry and neurology who conducted the study while at the University of Toronto but recently moved to Emory University in Atlanta. . .Dr. Zindel Segal, a University of Toronto psychiatry professor who worked on the study. . .The study, published in this month's Archives of General Psychiatry, helps to contrast the two main approaches to fighting it.”

We should be able to just glance at the end of the article and find a two line citation, maybe in handy brackets to set it aside from the story. Instead, I have to scan the whole thing and try to glean clues.

Here is the citation. “Modulation of Cortical-Limbic Pathways in Major Depression; Treatment-Specific Effects of Cognitive Behavior Therapy” Kimberly Goldapple, MSc; Zindel Segal, PhD; Carol Garson, MA; Mark Lau, PhD; Peter Bieling, PhD; Sidney Kennedy, MD; Helen Mayberg, MD Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2004;61:34-41.

Similar item was posted at my LISNews Journal

179 Overlawyered

Interesting blog on our one million lawyers and what people are thinking. "Overlawyered.com explores an American legal system that too often turns litigation into a weapon against guilty and innocent alike, erodes individual responsibility, rewards sharp practice, enriches its participants at the public's expense, and resists even modest efforts at reform and accountability. " The author is Walter Olson.

I noticed one class action suit against a bank where the customers received payments of $.16 to $.84 for overcharges, and the lawyers got $9 million for winning the suit. Readers send in many of the examples.

178 As health costs climb

A photograph on the front page of the Combus Dispatch today was startling, and indicative of what obesity is costing our health care system. Two staff people were each standing behind a wheelchair, regular and modified. The regular one costs $400. Next to it was a custom made wheelchair, perhaps two and a half times as wide for larger patients. Its cost was $4,000.

I wonder what cost is added in for injured medical staff who have to assist?

177 What you don't want to hear

I'm a morning person and like to go out for coffee early--before 7 a.m. I might visit three or four different places in a week. After awhile the faces of the customers and staff become familiar. Today I heard the words you do NOT want to hear any place you eat or drink.

I could see and hear the regional manager, but not the person in the back area (food prep) he was talking to. "You're sick, man. I'm ready to call 911. You're going home. You're sick!! (Protesting from the back room) Go home. Take care of yourself." He did. I passed on the free samples set out for the early birds.

176 A source for children’s reading

If you are a parent, grandparent, aunt, uncle or pushover mama to the neighborhood, you might enjoy reading back issues of The Bulletin of the Center for children’s books (University of Illinois) for help in selecting gift books or library books for your little ones. Sorry I didn’t mention this before Christmas, but there are always birthdays and graduations from kindergarten.

I mention back issues for two reasons--that’s what is on line if you carefully work your way through the links (they don’t make this too obvious), and with children’s books does it really matter if they don’t have the latest? Don’t you want something with 1) beautiful illustrations, 2) wonderful use of the language and 3) timeless lessons to be learned?

I first clicked to the Blue Ribbon Archive then clicked on any year before 2003 and was able to read the feature articles and blue ribbon selections and special subject focus lists. The Bulletin’s Dozen is a theme based list, available only on-line. July 2002, for instance, listed 12 books about farms and farming with brief annotations, for example: Hall, Donald. The Farm Summer 1942; illus. by Barry Moser. Dial, 1994. 6-9 yrs. "While his father and mother serve their country, Peter spends his summer caring for animals and listening to family stories on his grandparents' New Hampshire farm." These lists can be printed in pdf double sided, tri-fold.

Also an interesting article on storytelling and libraries in the August 1997 issue, some of which will hold true when you curl up in a big chair with the little big ears, but also important to know if the child in your life goes to library story hours.

#175 The expectation gap

It seems there is a significant gap between achievement of white students and black and/or Hispanic students, but the gap between white and Asian is even larger.

Clarence Page writes commenting on the book, "No excuses, closing the racial gap" by Abigail and Stephan Thernstrom: "Among the most intriguing possible reasons for this disparity is an intriguing group difference in the way students measure their family's "trouble threshold," according to one study that the Thernstroms cite. The "trouble threshold" is the lowest grade that students think they can receive before their parents go volcanic with anger and start clamping down on TV time, etc. In the survey by Laurence Steinberg, a Temple University social scientist, published in his 1996 book, "Beyond the Classroom," most of the black and Hispanic students surveyed said they could avoid trouble at home as long as their grades stayed above C-minus.

Most of the whites, by contrast, said their parents would give them a hard time if their children came home with anything less than a B-minus.

By contrast, most of the Asian students, whether immigrant or native-born, said that their parents would be upset if they brought home anything less than an A-minus."

When I was in school in the 1950s and 1960s it was MY expectation that mattered. It hovered around an A minus. I wanted A’s, but knew it might not happen in math or the sciences, my weak and low interest areas. My parents expected at least a B. So worrying about what my parents might say was just never an issue--my expectations were higher than theirs! I once got a C in tennis at Manchester College, but no one cared about sports except as it affected a GPA. If I suspected I was not going to do well, I dropped the class. But I averaged about an A- in high school and college.

#174 Index to themes, topics, passing thoughts, and ideas, updated

academe, libraries 10, 26, 29, 38, 54,67, 70, 75, 134
art and artists 54, 66, 102,126,148
blogging 1, 32, 46, 56
books and journals 2, 29, 31, 47, 51, 53, 57, 74, 90, 93,104,110, 115, 117, 119,149, 152, 155, 158, 166,170
condo living 40, 42
culture 31, 41, 139,140
economy, finances 7, 13, 33, 43, 61, 96,101, 111,127, 132,163
education 110
entertainment 72, 90, 109,123,129, 139
faith and values 14, 30, 31, 32, 37, 46, 50, 63, 62, 68, 69, 87, 94,118, 127,130, 132,131,138, 141,145,152, 166, 168
family 2, 4, 6, 21, 24, 28, 34, 36, 39, 55, 59, 67, 79, 80, 82, 86, 89, 98,122,128, 143,151, 156,160,165,169
fashion 21, 55
food, recipes, eating out 3, 8, 10, 11, 25, 35, 36, 42, 56, 59, 105,108,137,161
friends 9, 10, 21, 50, 54, 92,102,168
genealogy 19, 20, 24, 44, 67, 71, 73,106
health 23, 25, 36, 39, 48, 53, 61, 60, 81, 83, 88,128,133,146,156, 160
history 85
Illinois 44, 54, 63, 67
Internet, Usenet, computers 26, 32, 33, 37, 62
language 117,124,125
nature 31, 42, 58, 57
observations, misc. 5, 12, 15, 49, 52, 113, 114,120, 121,136 154,162
Ohio 20, 40, 97,107
pets 27, 39, 56, 92, 122
poetry 14, 22, 44, 55, 63, 80, 153
politics 9, 43, 70, 76, 78, 87, 99, 103, 116, 132, 135, 147,150,159
science 2, 16, 29
technology 96,142
war 100,119, 143,144, 147,
women 20, 23, 44, 63
writing 19, 62, 65, 67, 95,157,164

#173 Unshelved Comic Strip

To see more about this comic strip set in a public library, check the primer.

#172 2004 Financial Outlook

As 2004 begins, I’m thankful that when I was young, I didn’t take any loans to get through college. I’m thankful that I entered a stable marriage with a guy who had the same values. I’m thankful that when I was younger I learned to depend on one income and save the other (when I finally did go back to work). I’m thankful that I grew up in a household culture that looked disapprovingly on accumulating possessions. I’m thankful that I learned in my 30s that at least 10% comes off the top for God, and the next 15% goes to savings. Then there will always be enough to meet both the bills and the expectations.

I have a teacher’s pension. It’s about $18,000 a year. I’m not eligible for Social Security--neither on my own record of earnings nor my spouse’s. If you taught, say the first 25 years out of college, then retired and started a consulting business, or really ramped up your writing career and sold a novel or two, or maybe that guidebook that was on the back burner for all those years spent listening to hormonal 8th graders, you may be thinking that between your pension and your Social Security and your private investments, you’ll be able to be comfortable.

Think again. A teacher’s pension offsets Social Security benefits. (Government Pension Offset). It’s been this way since the mid-80s, but maybe you didn’t think about it when you retired, or didn’t know. If your spouse dies, you won’t get his/her SS spousal benefits either (Windfall Elimination Provision). Unless your teacher’s pension is really tiny, and even then you’ll get a fraction of a spouse who never worked. It may be one of the few issues NEA and I ever agreed on.

Fortunately, your private investments are doing well. In 2003 Nasdaq composite up 50%; S&P up 26.4%; Dow Jones up 25.3% (WSJ Jan 2, 04). So I hope you were socking it away back when you were young and carefree.