191 Predictions for 2004

I don’t often pay attention to full page ads in the Wall Street Journal, but “10 surprises of the New Year 2004” in yesterday’s paper did catch my eye. It’s Morgan Stanley’s predictions, but with somewhat more credibility than a crystal ball. The full list can be found at the about Morgan Stanley Web site, which for some reason has the odd date, January 5, 2003, even though it contains all the summaries for 2003 and predictions for 2004. Some webmaster didn’t update correctly, I guess. I’ve sent them an e-mail about this boo-boo. so it might be fixed by now.

1. Osama will be found.
2. Productivity continues to improve.
3. Stock market remains strong.
4. Mutual fund questionable practices will drop from the news.
5. Euro weakens.
6. Pharmaceuticals outperform.
7. Conditions in Saudi Arabia deteriorate--energy stocks outperform.
8. Silver becomes precious metal of choice, $8/oz, gold ascends to $500.
9. Japan’s economy picks up.
10. And here’s the big surprise prediction, in my opinion: Bill Frist will replace Dick Cheney on the ticket. Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz resign, saying their work is done.

Bill Frist was my top choice with Condi Rice for the Republican ticket in 2008, but I never thought about him for VP in 2004. This would be a good leg up on the campaign against Hillary in 2008, wouldn't it?