Thursday, July 09, 2020

The Surge in the Positive Rate Fallacy

"A July 8, 2020 Columbus Dispatch headline helps explain how this fallacy works. It screams, “Ohio’s spike continues with fourth-highest number of daily cases!”

But what the Columbus Dispatch and the DeWine administration fails to report is that this increase in cases simply reflects the fact that Ohio has significantly ramped up its daily testing numbers. For example, on July 2, 2020 Ohio reported a whopping 1,265 new cases. But what they didn’t tell us is that on July 2, 2020 Ohio also performed a whopping 20,613 COVID19 tests, one of their highest totals to date. In fact, it took until June 30, 2020 before Ohio was able to even perform 20,000 tests per day! . . .

A surge in new reported cases is only happening because Ohio has quadrupled its daily tests over the past several months. We aren’t seeing an increase in the actual percentage of positive tests. To say that these new cases are the result of a surge, is simply fake news."

https://ohiostatehousenews.com/2020/07/ohios-coronavirus-surge-is-fake-news-and-we-can-prove-it/?

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