Showing posts with label Tesla. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tesla. Show all posts

Thursday, March 20, 2025

We are blessed to be a blessing

Buffalo Grove, IL : "Tesla car owners, dealerships and charging stations have been targeted nationwide by protesters and vandals because of CEO Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to slash wasteful spending and fraud within the federal government."

Shocking. This story was about a suburban woman. The Left used to admire electric cars and tackling government waste and fraud. Obama and Clinton lauded it. Now we know that was all scripted by Soros and others who were drinking from the Government corruption hose. Our own citizens are having their brains warped and wounded by Trump Derangement Syndrome. They now hate what Democrats used to stand for.
 
I still want care for the environment. We forgot that in the "Green New Deal." Reduce waste and clean up after yourself. If we had a cabinet member for that we could all breath fresh air and not look at trash along every intersection. I want fair tariffs and honest government workers, and grants that go for worthwhile research instead of building academic empires. How did we end up with so much graft? The lower and mid-income in our country are the biggest, most generous (in percentage) and the two biggest corporate giants, Buffett and Musk , are the most generous in amounts. Rich or ordinary--we have been blessed to be a blessing. Let's get back to that value system.





Monday, May 15, 2017

Advancing technology vs. advancing age

Although I spend a lot of time reading, composing, listening to and watching programs and lectures on the computer, I’m a number of years behind on the technology—always have been since I got my first e-mail about 25 years ago. I’m so long at this I can remember when a colleague in TN asked the other Vet Med Librarians about 20 years ago to take a look at Google as a search engine, which was very new. Long before I had a blog I wrote several times a day on several Usenet groups, particularly one for writers. There were mean and nasty people then too, and trolls trying to destabilize the group and friendships. So the down side of social media goes way back.

But I took a HUGE leap forward yesterday. I looked at my little Mother’s Day package and wondered how my daughter could fit a new outfit into that! (Love it when she buys my clothes) But it was a Roku stick. Looking forward to new challenges. As I understand it (it's still in the box because I'll need her help in setting it up) anything I can watch on my computer I can now watch on TV, plus 4,500 other channels. Horror movies, old TV westerns, documentaries, fashion shows, religious programing. Then I can take the stick out and take it to the Lake and watch my stuff there.
"Roku devices are simple to set-up and easy-to-use. They come with a simple remote, and powerful features like Roku Search which makes it effortless to find what you want to watch. Roku devices give you access to 450,000+ movies and TV episodes from top free and paid channels, so you can stream almost anything: Roku How it Works "
Our son works in the automotive repair field, manages a shop for a major auto dealer, and for some time I've been dropping hints about how the automotive industry is changing. Good article in Atlantic about the Uber/Waymo (Google) wars, but it introduces the novice and elderly to the other players in the self-driving auto changes to come.  The author argues that self driving cars will probably change the world--fundamentally. "Mass adoption would create and destroy entire industries, alter the way people work and move through cities, and change the way those cities are designed and connected." Billions are at stake in personal profits. Big winners and losers.

Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Future

My sister-in-law sent me this guy's summary, which he says came from Singularity University summit. Very interesting, and some you've heard before. Those in the automotive field particularly need to pay attention--things are changing more quickly than you can say, "retirement." Technology is wonderful, but it does come with challenges. I watched what it did to my profession (library science) 25 years ago. At first it was fun; when I left I was just tired of relearning my job every day.

I (Udo Gollub) just went to the Singularity University summit and here are the key learnings.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide....
 
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?


Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.


Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.


Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.


Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.


Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.


Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countried can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

From Facebook post.