Climate change—in the 14th century

“In “The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century,” William Rosen explains how Europe’s “most widespread and destructive famine” was the result of “an almost incomprehensibly complicated mixture of climate, commerce, and conflict, four centuries in gestation.” Early in that century, 10 percent of the population from the Atlantic to the Urals died, partly because of the effect of climate change on “the incredible amalgam of molecules that comprises a few inches of soil that produces the world’s food.”

In the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), from the end of the ninth century to the beginning of the 14th, the Northern Hemisphere was warmer than at any time in the past 8,000 years — for reasons concerning which there is no consensus. Warming increased the amount of arable land — there were vineyards in northern England — leading, Rosen says, to Europe’s “first sustained population increase since the fall of the Roman Empire.” The need for land on which to grow cereals drove deforestation. The MWP population explosion gave rise to towns, textile manufacturing and new wealthy classes.

Then, near the end of the MWP, came the severe winters of 1309-1312, when polar bears could walk from Greenland to Iceland on pack ice. In 1315 there was rain for perhaps 155 consecutive days, washing away topsoil. Upwards of half the arable land in much of Europe was gone; cannibalism arrived as parents ate children. Corpses hanging from gallows were devoured.

Human behavior did not cause this climate change. Instead, climate warming caused behavioral change (10 million mouths to feed became 30 million). Then climate cooling caused social changes (rebelliousness and bellicosity) that amplified the consequences of climate, a pattern repeated four centuries later.”

And in the 17th century came the little ice age.  This too was not caused by humans.  We could learn from history, but we won’t.
George Will, Washington Post, via DesMoines Register, Jan. 10, 2015

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2015/01/11/george-will-climate-change-past-instructive/21584029/
https://audioboom.com/posts/5444467-climate-1314-ad-the-third-horseman-a-story-of-weather-war-and-the-famine-history-forgot-wil

Food Crisis Worsens in Central Africa

Read between the lines of this New York Times "green" article and do a little research, and you'll find food aid is often the cause of the crisis in these intractable hunger areas. Their governments use the food aid to hold the people hostage and to relocate them at will; the food aid depresses prices driving farmers from the land.

Food Crisis Worsens in Central Africa - NYTimes.com

Today's WSJ reviewed a new book on the outcomes of money gathered from the feel-good Live Aid concert. The government of Ethiopia killed more people than the famine through forced resettlement. You can read sections of the book at Google. "Famine and foreigners, Ethiopia since Live Aid," by Peter Gill.

As Gill notes, aid agencies (generally foreign) have been involved (and/or meddling) in Ethiopia for decades now, as have foreign governments, and the roles of these often very well-backed foreign governments and institutions has played a part in the course various famines (and periods where famine was a threat) took. In the mid-1980s, for example, the Derg imposed a mass resettlement policy, trying to move people from one area of the country to another. They often did so forcefully, and the policy divided both the nations providing aid as well as the aid agencies with their differing policies of non-interference and conceptions of sovereignty.

As Gill repeatedly notes, many aid agencies did very well by the famines -- in getting cash, raising their profiles, becoming players. While avoiding outright condemnation, Gill does note that, for example, Oxfam in particular not only expanded rapidly into a dominant player, but eventually also was closely tied to the British Labour government -- and that its self-interest seem to have influenced at least some aid-decisions, such as silence on the resettlement policy. (On the other hand, he seems to approve of Médecins Sans Frontières' (Doctors without Borders') focus solely on conditions on the ground, and indifference to stepping on anyone's (and particularly any government's) toes.) Link

4853 New twist on an old myth

When I was a little girl, children were told to clean up their plates because there were starving children in China (or India or Africa depending on where your church had missions). Most of us were skinny and baffled how that would help other kids--but guilt never makes much sense. Today I heard some expert say that if Americans would just eat less, Indians would have more. The reason people don't have enough food has nothing to do with available calories in their own country. Since the 1970s all countries, even the poorest, have been self-sufficient in food. The problem is corrupt governments that let it rot, or who steal it, trade it or control people with it, or don't build roads so poor, rural people can get to it. When the Irish were starving in the 19th century, Britain was exporting their food. When the Ukrainians were starving in the early 20th century, they were living in the bread basket of the world. Those were political, not agricultural, famines. Right now people are starving in Burma after a natural disaster, but they were probably awfully thin going into it; U.S. and U.N. food aid has been stolen by the military-communist controlled government. There are calls for the U.N. to DO SOMETHING besides form a committee and write a report!

Burning food stuffs to run cars does change the balance of trade and supply, and even if it never got to Burma, wouldn't you feel better if you weren't burning it?

Volcanoes, climate change and politics

A child born in Europe in 765 AD would have lived to the ripe old age of 55 without experiencing a single severe winter to threaten his food supply and economic system. A child born in 763 might not have made it through the first winter. A child born in 820 AD would have five such crisis winters to live through. Volcanoes which brought on rapid climate change which brought on famines and eventually the "little ice age" are the topic of this interesting study in a recent issue of Speculum, the journal of the Medieval Academy, "Volcanoes and the Climate Forcing of Carolingian Europe, A.D. 750-950," By Michael McCormick, Paul Edward Dutton and Paul A. Mayewski.

So what happens when there is a lot of volcanic activity, as there was after a lull in the first 500 years of the Christian era?

Microscopic particles, if lifted into the stratosphere as an aerosol—solid or liquid particles suspended in a gas, in this case, the atmosphere (e.g., a cloud)—may diminish the global temperature by blocking solar radiation. This in turn will work various and complex effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Furthermore, volcanic aerosols increase nucleation sites for water. The resultant cloud condensation nuclei can produce precipitation. Volcanic emissions are typically rich in sulfur dioxide (SO2), which is converted to sulfuric acid (H2SO4). In addition to reflecting solar radiation back into space and thereby cooling the earth, the aerosols also fall to the earth. The resultant sulfate (SO4) particles are preserved in the millennial record of atmospheric deposits—snow—in the great Greenland glaciers, and, through mass spectroscopy, the particles can be measured in parts per billion (ppb) in the annual layers of ice.

The authors suggest that Charlemagne may have been more lucky than smart, and his son just got dealt a bad hand by the weather. "His act of public penance would have little effect on the volcanic aerosol that produced yet another terrible winter, famine, and disruption but a year later." Obviously, politics and weather went hand and glove even 1300 years ago--Kyoto and the UN fiddling isn't new.

The thought occurred to me that maybe God was at work getting the church established by quieting down the volcanoes in the early years of the church; and now natural and atmospheric events have been loosed--but former and current presidents want to believe otherwise.