Insufficient data, and the science of pandemics

". . . The CDC declares that “there are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of vitamin D [to control the pandemic].”

Somehow, though, the “insufficient data” problem disappeared when it came to lockdowns and mask mandates. Before the pandemic, the official expert consensus was against those measures, but the consensus was promptly discarded in the hope that these sacrifices might help. The evidence since then could easily be called insufficient, given the lack of randomized studies and the inconvenient data showing that places with lockdowns didn’t fare any better than the places without strict measures. And given what has emerged about the minuscule rate of transmission in outdoor settings, you could certainly say there’s insufficient evidence to order people to stay inside their homes or to mandate masks outdoors. . .  

It’s not surprising that groups with disproportionately high rates of Covid mortality are also prone to vitamin D deficiency: African-Americans and other minorities, the obese, residents of nursing homes and other elderly people. Levels of vitamin D tend to decline with age, and because the vitamin is synthesized in the body by exposure to sunlight, people tend to have lower levels if they spend less time outdoors or have darker skin that absorbs less ultraviolet radiation from the sun."

 Pandemic Penitents | City Journal (city-journal.org)

And now we're in a second wave, and possibly a mutation that will be moving much faster so we'll just do more of what hasn't been working. So, the more we stay inside, the less sun and less Vitamin D, and the more depression from lack of sun and lack of socializing.  So, the experts tell us to do more of what's killing us.

The link between vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 in a large population | medRxiv

Association of Vitamin D Deficiency and Treatment with COVID-19 Incidence | medRxiv

“Effect of calcifediol treatment and best available therapy versus best available therapy on intensive care unit admission and mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19: A pilot randomized clinical study” - ScienceDirect

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data - PubMed (nih.gov)

There are no peer review articles supporting wearing a mask for Covid19, but there are many for using Vitamin D.

Six things about Vitamin D, Harvard Medical School Health Beat

A number of factors influence a person’s vitamin D levels. Here are six important ones.

1. Where you live. The further away from the Equator you live, the less vitamin D–producing UVB light reaches the earth’s surface during the winter. Residents of Boston, for example, make little if any of the vitamin from November through February. Short days and clothing that covers legs and arms also limit UVB exposure.

2. Air quality. Carbon particles in the air from the burning of fossil fuels, wood, and other materials scatter and absorb UVB rays, diminishing vitamin D production. In contrast, ozone absorbs UVB radiation, so pollution-caused holes in the ozone layer could end up enhancing vitamin D levels.

3. Use of sunscreen. Sunscreen prevents sunburn by blocking UVB light. Theoretically, that means sunscreen use lowers vitamin D levels. But as a practical matter, very few people put on enough sunscreen to block all UVB light, or they use sunscreen irregularly, so sunscreen’s effects on vitamin D might not be that important. An Australian study that’s often cited showed no difference in vitamin D between adults randomly assigned to use sunscreen one summer and those assigned a placebo cream.

4. Skin color. Melanin is the substance in skin that makes it dark. It “competes” for UVB with the substance in the skin that kick-starts the body’s vitamin D production. As a result, dark-skinned people tend to require more UVB exposure than light-skinned people to generate the same amount of vitamin D.

5. Weight. Body fat sops up vitamin D, so it’s been proposed that it might provide a vitamin D rainy-day fund: a source of the vitamin when intake is low or production is reduced. But studies have also shown that being obese is correlated with low vitamin D levels and that being overweight may affect the bioavailability of vitamin D.

6. Age. Compared with younger people, older people have lower levels of the substance in the skin that UVB light converts into the vitamin D precursor. There’s also experimental evidence that older people are less efficient vitamin D producers than younger people.

Don’t see a link, but this is on their e-mail newsletter. http://www.health.harvard.edu/

http://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/

About that last 10 pounds

It's apparently good for you, ladies. But not more than that. Combine that with the 60 minutes a day exercise, and all the sunscreen you can slather on, and we're good to go! Today's WSJ in the side bar:

How a Little Fat Can Help
Some new research shows that being a little overweight doesn't increase health risks. And there may be some benefits. Recent findings include


1. Overweight people are no more likely than those of normal weight to die from cancer or cardiovascular disease.
2. During a 10-year time span, there was a reduced risk of dying for people in their 70s who were overweight compared to those of normal weight.
3. Doctors who study osteoporosis say a little extra weight may help strengthen bones.
4. As they age, women who are overweight often look younger than other women.
Why Carrying an Extra 10 Pounds Might Not Hurt - WSJ.com

There was also an article about sunscreen, something I rarely use. I think my last suntan was in 1985 in Hawaii, and my last burn was in college. I just hate to sit in the sun and sweat. I do like Oil of Olay sunscreen however--it's a great moisturizer, too.

Young ladies. Listen up and lighten up. Great-grandma was right! Protect your skin while in the garden, yard or at the beach. Otherwise you end up with wrinkled, blotchy brown leather. Take a Vitamin D supplement.

Too pretty to stay inside today

Can't remember if I posted this poem here. Originally wrote it this summer for my other, other blog on retirement after an e-mail from . . . forgotten whom. . . oh well.

Song of the Other Sister
by Norma Bruce

Glucosamine chondroitin
maybe some ibuprofen
Viactiv with calcium
fish oil and Senior Centrum.

Ohioans need vitamin D,
build those bones for all to see;
Stretch and bend, wear socks and shoes,
Take a walk after the news.

Breathe deeply now, in and out,
wave to your friends give a shout,
life is good we can't complain,
but we'd settle for less pain.

Thursday evening I asked my husband how much he weighed because I wanted to see if he was "government approved."

"160," he shouted from his lounge chair in the other room.
"Oh, you've never weighed that in your life." I said.
"But I have my check up tomorrow, so we'll find out."
"Are you 5'8"?"
"No, I'm 5'9" same as always."
"Can't be. You're getting shorter." I said.

Turns out he was 156 and 5'9" so I guess we were both half right. Dr. Wulf says he has the body of a 55 year old. Must be all that dancing with the ladies he does (leads an aerobics class and he's the only guy). So now what do I do? I'm married to a younger man. How will I keep up?