2019 crime statistics were decreasing

Before the current staged riots which have increased crime rates for 2020 in major cities, crime was decreasing. (Nine police have been shot in St. Louis since the death of George Floyd)  That must have made some CEOs of victim groups like BLM and ANTIFA very uncomfortable. It made Trump look good. Here's what happened in 2019--fewer women were assaulted and the cities were safer than 2018:

The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault declined 15% from 2018 to 2019, from 8.6 to 7.3 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Among females, the rate of violent victimization excluding simple assault fell 27% from 2018 to 2019.

There were 880,000 fewer victims of serious crimes (generally felonies) in 2019 than in 2018, a 19% drop.

From 2018 to 2019, 29% fewer black persons and 22% fewer white persons were victims of serious crimes.

The rate of violent victimization in urban areas—based on the NCVS's new classifications of urban, suburban, and rural areas—declined 20% from 2018 to 2019.

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv19_sum.pdf?

Joe Biden has saved many Black lives.

A total of 194 shooting incidents involving black victims occurred in New York City in June, a 177% increase from the 70 recorded in June 2019, according to the New York Police Department. The BLM movement and its liberal apologists in white suburbia are taking black lives, particularly young people, at an alarming rate. It sounds terrible, but the violence is still lower than in the early 1990s when the 1994 omnibus crime bill cracked down on violence, giving the states federal money for more police and equipment, and the streets of the major cities became safer by half. Violent crime rate was 757.7 per 100,000 in 1992, and 368.9 per 100,000 in 2018. That was an uptick from 361.6 in 2014.

Many people, both parties (and especially Harris and DeBlasio), have blamed Biden, who advocated for the crime bill. They don't give him credit for the thousands of black lives saved over a 30 year period, because the crime rate for blacks is about 6x higher than whites, therefore, the criminals incarcerated during those years, where not killing other black men. Also, the incarceration rate had been going up for many years before the crime bill. And "experts" (sort of like "scientists") don't agree on why the crime rate was halved. "Restorative justice" (i.e., ignore the crime based on race like the Parkland school shooting) people want to blame the law for high rates of black criminals in jail, but they don't want to credit it for saving black lives.

As Senate Judiciary chairman, Biden was a prime mover of the 1994 law, promising that "there will be fewer people murdered," and "fewer children will be turning to crime." (Politico) And he was. His efforts saved lives. But times have changed. His legacy must be denied to get him elected.

This is not to say that Joe Biden should be president for something that harmed/helped Blacks in 1994, only to say his party is a bunch of hypocrites who have so much hate for President Trump they will continue to lie, cheat and steal to get him out of office.

Police brutality, blacks and whites

Listening to people call the Mike Gallagher show to talk about what's open during this Covid19 crisis in their town. One from Virginia called to complain that during this time of protest and pandemic his governor (Mr. blackface) is addressing removing statues. Another from North Carolina (a Democrat) reports gathering for protests is encouraged and winked at, but the Republican convention which would have brought millions to the state coffers, is cancelled. Another (I think he was from California) complained that only 10 people are allowed at a private party and social distancing must be maintained, but 100 are allowed at a protest, and no social distancing. Now tell me folks, what part of this whole mess isn't political?

Grieving for a man who was killed in a terrible way during an arrest is understandable; allowing the nation to be destroyed based on a myth of police brutality is an evil, ugly plot to destroy the lives and living of millions. In 2019, 9 black men died at the hands of police during a confrontation. 19 white men died during a confrontation with police. Most were in the act of committing a crime. This information is from the Washington Post data base and is real, deep digging research investigating all the circumstances. So who blows it up? Our news media and social media.

39 black men had fatal confrontations with police in 2015 and 9 in 2019. We are a nation of 330, 000,000. Even for Obama's era, that's a tiny, tiny percentage of millions of confrontations with police.  However the drop is significant under Trump.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877 is the link to the research. Probably to save their P & T promotion, the authors of this article, which makes perfectly clear that more whites are at risk than blacks in confrontations with police are trying to walk it back. I guess too many people were quoting it to bust the myth that unarmed black men are at terrible risk.

Academe is so far left, it's amazing anything but the party line ever got in to print. The hurdle would be funding, probably figured it was an easy thing to prove--systemic racism and police brutality. Then the next hurdle, finding a publisher--all the journals are also liberal with gate keepers who can shut the door. Then to get a group of people to do a peer review--that must have been a challenge once the results of the study were known. Of course, purchasing it had already been done. PNAS is on subscription and librarians (also gate keepers) probably couldn't reject it. I fully expect that after their clarification and apology, and after they've been run out of town, tarred and feathered, their careers have been ruined and the offending volume will be removed from library shelves.

Violent Crime statistics—no agreement, but not difficult to find

Violent crime. All the data show violent crime went down after the early 90s--by about half. (Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, 1994) There isn't any agreement on why. Was it Clinton's Crime Bill or the aging of baby boomer males, or the incarceration of so many young black men? In any case, Democrats own it--they controlled all 3 branches in 1994. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2019/05/10/469642/3-ways-1994-crime-bill-continues-hurt-communities-color/

The data also show it bumped up again during the last 2 years of the Obama administration. Again, no answer, but nowhere near the rate of the 80s and 90s. And it is going down again the last 3 years in all categories--murder, rape, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny and arson. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/preliminary-report/tables/table-3/table-3.xls

Read if for yourselves.

https://www.justice.gov/resources

Gun control in Seattle

"Last Wednesday night, right around rush hour, gunfire erupted on a busy Seattle street near a bus stop with numerous commuters and pedestrians nearby. One person was killed and seven were wounded, including a 9-year-old boy. This wasn’t the typical gang fight that erupted deep in a bad neighborhood; it placed numerous commuters in the crossfire. Two Amazon workers were shot."
The three suspects among them had nearly 70 priors. Yes, it was illegal for them to have guns. The very people who want gun control are the ones who think that a system that already fails to confine violent gun felons and gangsters is too punitive.

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/seattle-commuter-shooting-nearly-70-prior-arrests-among-three-suspects/

What’s good about Baltimore?

Baltimore Sun claims DC has more rats than Baltimore, so I looked at a site that compared both cities.  Baltimore is losing population, DC is gaining, but in most demographics the two are comparable, with Baltimore having more single heads of household (usually a significant sign of poverty). But the comments were revealing; this one by William found a lot to like about Baltimore, white also noting the negatives.  I just pulled out the positive.

“For starters Baltimore is a great independent city filled with rich history, great sports teams (present/ past), a variety of cultural foods and local delicacies all wrapped up in a place jokingly referred to as “Smalltimore”. The Under Armour headquarters is based out of here, not to forgot about the growing tech sector, the expanding neighborhoods of Harbor East and South Point, the excellent array of hospitals (John’s Hopkin’s, Mercy, and the University of Maryland healthcare systems) and colleges within the city with so much more; however, like every city there are pockets of good and bad, but with this city there are a lot more bad things than good.

Crime, corruption, pollution/ trash on the roads, jay walkers who will willingly walk in the middle of traffic during a rush hour, a majority populous who only votes for Democratic candidates who mostly are unqualified (the city doesn’t even have a Office of Ethics until 2019), and some of the worst infrastructure I've seen.

Some spots have been gentrified over the years, but there are far more depilated properties once you head north and west. There are great markets spread out throughout the city with one of the largest places smack-dab in the middle of the city. You can find all types of fresh seafood, goods, and even have services performed for reasonable prices. Shopping elsewhere has been more about going out to the county as Towson Town Mall, Arundel Mills, and White Marsh Mall’s have severed the area for decades. There is an array of retailers such as Brooks Brothers, J.Crew, and other haberdasheries if you’re looking for tailored goods - Hat’s on the belfry is a great hat shop for all sexes in Fell’s Point. Target is located on the East side of the city in the expanding Canton neighborhood, and more shops have been added over the last 4 years. There are great corner store markets, and some shoppers enjoy organic options offered from Whole Food’s in Harbor East. There is a lot more than I’ve named and there is something for everyone out there. If shopping isn’t your thing, there are plenty of neighborhood bars, seafood eateries, brunch spots, and high end dining options. If you’re looking for family friendly spots there are plenty scattered throughout the Inner Harbor and the residing neighborhoods. Not only is there great shopping there is world-class entertainment venues and more parks than most cities I’ve visited.

As for the entertainment side, the famous historic Hippodrome is a great spot to check out Broadway plays, or prepare for a night out at the Royal Farm’s area and see big name artists as they play in a remodeled arena; but, there is so much more! You can visit Ram’s Head Live! And see many bands year round in a much smaller area than DC’s 9:30 Club with unrestricted views of your favorite musicians or enjoy a concert overlooking the harbor at the MECU (formerly Pier 6) pavilion. Aforementioned sports in this city are played as some of the best examples of stadiums in the US. The Orioles at Camden Yards is consistently rated as one of the best stadiums to visit and the Baltimore Raven’s M&T Bank is a gem in itself. If you’re not about loud music and sports there is a multitude of museums and art exhibits - the Walter’s has one of the largest free collections I’ve ever seen. Or if you’re into street art, Graffiti Lane is a cool spot to see. ”

Someone named William at https://www.bestplaces.net/comments/viewcomment.aspx?id=E2864B95-262B-4692-849A-719AC3EFDBE5&city=Baltimore_md&p=52404000

June 27, 2019

Don’t be manipulated by the media

Since the Omnibus Crime Bill was passed in 1994, violent crime has dropped drastically. In New York City in 1990 there were 2,262 murders; in 2015 there were 352. Nationwide, there were over 1.5 million firearm non-fatalities in 1993 compared to about 478,000 in 2011. Researchers argue about the reasons—conservatives tend to site better policing and stiffer sentencing removing serious criminals from neighborhood, and liberals are all over the map with everything from abortions in the 70s and 80s eliminating potential killers to stronger safety net for the poor to better reporting and aging baby boomers who do less crime. Could be all of these, in my opinion. http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf

Because of the bias in research based on political and religious views, it’s difficult to tease out the details, but one thing is for certain, the media distorts reports of violent crime. It can sell more papers, or get more TV revenue or encourage more clicks on line for profit if it involves a black man being killed by a white man, and particularly if police are involved.

Most violent crime is intra-racial. You hear more about black on black crime primarily because there is so much more of it, but homicides of white men also are usually committed by a white men. Homicides of women of any race are more likely to be by an “intimate partner,” or someone they know. Homicides of pregnant women is rarely reported and only marginally researched, but it's out there.

You could easily miss that black women are much more likely to be victims of violent crime than white women—more so than white men--a type of black on black crime that goes unreported and doesn’t cause riots. Overall, black women are murdered at a rate more than three times higher than white women.  The media play up crimes against white women (especially young and pretty) because it sells. The victimization rate for white females was 1.6 per 100,000 persons in 2013. This compares to rates per 100,000 persons of 4.4 for black females, 4.0 for white males and 32.3 for black males.

National Crime Report for 2015

A new national crime report was released April 19. Violent crime is still at an all time low in the U.S. In most places, that’s a result of two decades of the Omnibus Crime Bill, which Bill Clinton recently had to defend as it was a beacon of hope in his administration. In NYC in 1990 there were 2,262 murders; in 2015 there were 352. Can you see President Clinton might be insulted by the accusations? As some cities feel the pressure to ignore smaller crimes like vagrancy, public urination and petty crimes, because some liberals think they are racist, we may see that change. Let's see what Bill DeBlasio will fare.

Some cities, however, are experiencing an increase in their murder rate. Oklahoma City, for instance, is up almost 65%, which sounds terrible, but that’s 75 murders in 2015 instead of 45 in 2014. Washington DC is up 51.2%, from 105 to 162 in 2015. Murders in Denver went from 31 in 2014 to 54 in 2015, an increase of 74.2%, largest increase in the nation, up there with Baltimore and Oklahoma City. 

In the 30 largest cities of the U.S. there is a 13.2% increase in murder (Columbus and Indianapolis figures are “unavailable.”) The three worst cities in crime increase, Baltimore, Chicago and Washington, DC, have poverty rates double the national average, unemployment higher than the national average (but lower than national average during the 2008 recession), but in median income they don’t resemble each other.

As I see it, only Democrat control and huge transfers for social programs from the federal government link these three. Crime, like poverty and poor schools, guarantees these cities a steady income drip from DC.

https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Crime_in_2015_A_Final_Analysis.pdf

The Ferguson effect--violence is on the increase

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase.

The Brennan Center’s report, “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis” confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing.

"St. Louis Alderman Jeffrey Boyd, at a news conference in July after his nephew was slain, made a poignant plea: “We march every time the police shoot and kill somebody. But we’re not marching when we’re killing each other in the streets. Let’s march for that.”

Trying to hide the rise of crime