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CIA Freedom of Information web site

In 2000, before 9/11 and the current war, the CIA prepared a 15 year forecast. [These are scanned, not digitized, so not particularly easy to read.] It is really instructive to go back and see what career government intelligence employees were warning our elected leaders about. Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)were probably the most consistent warning. Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Iraq were said to have "the capability to strike the U.S. and the potential for unconventional delivery of WMD by both states and nonstate actors." I'm sure this is not the only document in there with this information, because we know a number of prominent Democrats like Kennedy, Edwards and Kerry were beating the WMD drum in the late 90s, but then backed off when a President not of their party took their warnings seriously.

There were erroneous predictions about the global economy, and we were in a down turn then and no one foresaw the incredible boom of the 21st century. Although reading between the lines, they were general enough to be true--such has Europe and Japan needed to manage their aging work force or there would be consequences (well, duh!). If the global energy supplies were disrupted, it could have a devastating affect on the whole world (take that you "it's all about oil" peaceniks!). Also, this interesting tidbit: "Recent estimates indicate 80% of the world's available oil still remains in the ground, as does 95% of the world's natural gas." p. 17

I'd say the report was spot on about information technology and biotechnology predictions, if anything, it is a bit sluggish as those fields blossom like mold in a damp basement. The report was pretty accurate here, too: "Most anti-U.S. terrorism will be based on perceived ethnic religious or cultural grievances." Now, I wonder who plays that up and then asks, "What can we do to regain our place in the world and get along?"

For a 51 page report, the amount devoted to global climate change/warming is extremely modest, or maybe it just seems that way given the constant coverage we have today. It did address the "environmental neglect" of the formerly Marxist countries as a problem, and predicted the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, not because of the danger of a Republican administration, but because of the growing economies of China and India.

But it was soooo on target with comments about religion, I almost couldn't believe it: "Activist components** of [Christians and Muslims] and other religious groupings will emerge to contest such issues as genetic manipulation, women's rights, and the income gap between rich and poor. A wider religious or spiritual movement also may emerge, possibly linked to environmental values." Someone in the CIA spotted the rise of pantheism as a world religion. Good job!

You can do a dual search: first search your topic (Iraq= >1000 documents) then limit by year (2007=26). The date will most likely refer to the year it was "released," so you can easily see what was being said or researched in the 90s and review how that works out today. Check out NIE 2002-16HC, "Iraq's continuing programs for WMD, October 2002" which makes a "key judgement" that Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of the UN restrictions. It estimated 100-500 metric tons of chemical warfare agents including mustard, sarin, GF and VX stockpiles.

**"Religious voices are part of a two-week-long United Nations conference on climate change being held in Bali. Delegations from the World Council of Churches, the Vatican, and many Catholic orders are among the participants. The conference plans to develop an international pact to battle global warming. Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams and other religious leaders urged the delegates to take aggressive action to protect the environment." Report from Bali