Rumors of economic downturn, again

Remember when Trump took the oath of office, and all the liberal economists were predicting disaster? I’ve looked back through the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 predictions. It isn’t all stock market talk—it’s farmers in Tennessee, or truck drivers cross country, or realtors.  Each little blip brings out the “what are we going to do about this monster in the White House?”

The last recession ended in June 2009--before the first dollar of ARRA went out the door. They come around about every 10 years (GW Bush inherited the 2000 recession), and usually the recovery is fast unless the government interferes too much with "help." I wonder why liberals keep trying to talk us into an economic down turn? Maybe because they are desperate to see Trump fail and will damage the whole nation for that goal? The October Census report on poverty and the November report on jobs where almost mind blowing for the Democrats--they are so eager to bring down the most successful president in our life times.

Cheering on the next recession

When Trump got the nomination in 2016 the experts (mostly Democrats working in non-profit "think tanks") predicted economic disaster. Since early 2017, the same "experts" have been predicting a recession. Our local news channel took the time out to announce one last night. Since they come around about every 10 years, someone will eventually get this one right. OTH, it seems some in media are pushing for economic failure so Democrats can have a crisis they will resolve by taking over more of the economy. They were doing the same in 2007. Remember the ARRA? The last recession was over (June 2009) before the first dollar to pay off Obama supporters was out the door. Then like the LA homeless, the Democrats relieved themselves on every effort of Americans to rebuild. They particularly enjoy terrorizing the little guy just building her business; after all, they've got the giant corporations on their side, like big tech and big pharma, who have the bucks to finance their campaigns and lobby for more regulation (keeps the up and coming stalled).

Here’s a really safe December 2016 prediction—maybe good, maybe bad.  World economy could suffer if Trump makes America great again. https://www.moneytips.com/what-economists-are-predicting-for-2017-under-president-trump

Predictions from June 2018—things are good now, but look out. http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-2020-trump-trade/

Many forget the recession of 2000. How did President Bush handle that with the 9/11 disaster? Lowered taxes. Quick recovery. Congress enacted tax cuts to families in 2001 and investors in 2003. EGTRRA saved taxpayers $1.35 trillion over a 10-year period. Democrats hated this one. Said it decreased the government's "income." Note the cons in this article. https://www.thebalance.com/economic-growth-and-tax-relief-reconciliation-act-3305764

Marketing strategy for Lakeside

While looking for my map of the Great Lakes (wanted to figure out exactly where Lake Superior was) I found a power point illustration for a 2010 lecture at Lakeside on marketing strategy for our little town. I found a chart showing the recession of 2000 was over by November 2001 (how often are you told Geo. W. Bush inherited a recession) but with slow job growth and the recession of late 2007 was over in June 2009 with even slower job growth, and with both, plus the one in 1991, it was the private sector, not government programs that created the recovery. Looks like we're about due, doesn't it? But government won't learn, no matter who is in office.

Flashback on taxes and Democrats

John Kerry and John Edwards in the 2004 presidential race ran on a platform of repealing tax breaks for the rich. Sound familiar? Wasn’t that mentioned in Tuesday’s SOTU?  They didn't like Bush's tax cuts of 2003 for capital gains despite the fact the cuts brought in a 68% increase in tax revenues. Why do tax cuts bring in higher revenues? Lowering the rate provides incentive to sell, and that means money to reinvest which means more growth, which means more jobs, which means more taxes for our Congress to spend. That makes Democrats very unhappy, because it also means the rich get richer. They'd rather everyone suffer than have the upper quintile (other than themselves) get more. Bush inherited a recession too, although he didn't mention it every time he was in front of a microphone. He just put a stop to it. Obama wants higher taxes not to help the middle class (we'll never see a penny of it), but to punish the successful.

Jobless rate holds steady at 6.3%

After reading the butterfly kisses account of the “recovering economy” in the Washington Post (all jobs lost during the recession are back, and oh yes, labor participation rate is the lowest since 1978) I scanned through the comments.  Noticed this realistic one—can’t tell if the writer is left, right or middle, but s/he has obviously lost the rose colored glasses the government economists have been passing out for 5 years.

I think most of us are smart enough not to swallow the government data on job growth, rising home prices, or the brainless comment that "“we’re in the clear for the second quarter,” or any other data they throw at us. We're not as gullible as they think we are...we live in the REAL world, not from their fantasy realm in some ivory tower where they look down their noses at the working classes and fudge the numbers to make their assessments look good. How do they sleep at night?

Wonk blog, Washington Post

Here’s what an Obama recovery with added taxes, regulations, bank bail outs and crazy “cash for clunkers” looks like: 2.5years longer than any other recovery since WWII.

Divots on the golf course and pivots on the economy

"Because Obama speaks with such authority, it often takes several repetitions before I realize that what he’s saying is total nonsense." Caroline Baum, Bloomberg, on his "growing the economy" meme, A User’s Guide to Obama’s Inside-Out Economics, Aug. 7, 2013

He's pivoted again; it's back to the economy. The rich have recovered; the low income not so much. Five years and Obama can't fix it. The recession has been over since June 2009. Truman had a recession, Eisenhower had several, Nixon got a recession, so did Carter, so did Reagan, so did both Bushes, and all were brief and the economy quickly recovered. But then, they didn't try to take over health care and pay back and bail out unions and bankers. You have to go all the way back to FDR's mishandling of the Depression in the 30s, extending it a decade, to find a record this poor.

          

Obama’s floundering economy

Notice the difference between the recession Bush inherited, and the one Obama inherited. It took Bush only a couple of years even with 9/11, although it never got back to the tech boom years of the late 90s. Obama is still floundering, and it may take until 2023 to get back to the Bush levels. Obama continues to punish small businesses and intimidate those who would expand and grow. He decided to tackle health care instead of the economy, and we are sure paying for that.

Worst Multiple-Year Economic Recoveries Since WWII

1) June 2009 - Present: 7.5 percent growth

2) April 1958 - April 1960: 11.7 percent growth

3) May 1954 - September 1957: 13.4 percent growth

4) November 1970 - November 1973: 16.4 percent growth

5) November 2001 – January 2007: 17.2 percent growth

6) March 1975 – January 1980: 23.2 percent growth

7) October 1949 – July 1953: 28.7 percent growth

8) November 1982 – July 1990: 37.3 percent growth

9) March 1991 – March 2001: 42.1 percent growth

10) February 1961 – December 1969: 51.2 percent growth

The Recession was over in June 2009—before the stimulus kicked in—in 2013 he says recovery has begun

If Obama hadn't tried to take over 1/6 of the economy throwing all plans for development, invention and expansion into a free fall, the recession he continues to blame on Bush could have been solved quickly. (Technically, it was over in June 2009, so everything he did after that caused the economy to remain sluggish.)

Retiree confidence levels change since the Bush years

Some people forget that G W Bush also inherited a recession. The percent of retirees in 2001 who felt very confident or somewhat confident that they had saved and invested sufficiently for retirement ranged from 74% in 2001 to 79% in 2007. In 2008, that dropped to 64% and then to 60% in 2011 as the recession ground on despite a massive influx of federal funding. Link to Research. The gloom and doom in the business community is palpable as they are hit by more and more taxes and uncertainty about health care. Expansion is mostly out of the question, unless you're a petroleum driller in North Dakota. This affects those of us who live on retirement incomes whether Social Security, or defined benefit plans or our own savings/investments. Obviously, two things jump out about those years--the current recession that started in 2007 changed the investing mix and caused retirees to reevaluate their retirement plans and spending, and the baby boomers began entering the retirement demographic.

Those of us who were born before or during WWII whose fathers fought in that war and whose parents were teen-agers or young adults during the Great Depression have a different attitude than baby boomers about saving and sufficiency. We also have benefited from stronger family safety nets and we know the difference between “wants vs. needs." The value gap will expand for Gen-Xers who were accustomed to even more “stuff” replacing spiritual and familial values. In the 1940s and 1950s even children whose parents never took them to church heard Biblical admonitions on values and thrift in school before the Supreme Court ended it in the 1960s. "Don't store up treasures here on earth, where moths eat them and rust destroys them, and where thieves break in and steal. Store your treasures in heaven, where moths and rust cannot destroy, and thieves do not break in and steal.” Matt 6:19-20

Talking us into a Depression

With the January jobs report, the recent recession has become one of the five worst since WWII in terms of jobs losses as a percentage of the work force (I know you may, from reading the paper and listening to Obama, think it is the worst, but it is still only the fourth or fifth worst). Let me compare the job losses and the output declines at this point in the recession for these 5 recessions:

See Coyote Blog

"I ask every business owner or manager I meet for the personal evidence they have of economic cataclysm. Is their business down? And in a surprising number of cases, I get the answer that their business is doing OK, but they are cutting back because surely the worst is soon to come, based on everything they see in the media."