Rumors of economic downturn, again

Remember when Trump took the oath of office, and all the liberal economists were predicting disaster? I’ve looked back through the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 predictions. It isn’t all stock market talk—it’s farmers in Tennessee, or truck drivers cross country, or realtors.  Each little blip brings out the “what are we going to do about this monster in the White House?”

The last recession ended in June 2009--before the first dollar of ARRA went out the door. They come around about every 10 years (GW Bush inherited the 2000 recession), and usually the recovery is fast unless the government interferes too much with "help." I wonder why liberals keep trying to talk us into an economic down turn? Maybe because they are desperate to see Trump fail and will damage the whole nation for that goal? The October Census report on poverty and the November report on jobs where almost mind blowing for the Democrats--they are so eager to bring down the most successful president in our life times.

Cheering on the next recession

When Trump got the nomination in 2016 the experts (mostly Democrats working in non-profit "think tanks") predicted economic disaster. Since early 2017, the same "experts" have been predicting a recession. Our local news channel took the time out to announce one last night. Since they come around about every 10 years, someone will eventually get this one right. OTH, it seems some in media are pushing for economic failure so Democrats can have a crisis they will resolve by taking over more of the economy. They were doing the same in 2007. Remember the ARRA? The last recession was over (June 2009) before the first dollar to pay off Obama supporters was out the door. Then like the LA homeless, the Democrats relieved themselves on every effort of Americans to rebuild. They particularly enjoy terrorizing the little guy just building her business; after all, they've got the giant corporations on their side, like big tech and big pharma, who have the bucks to finance their campaigns and lobby for more regulation (keeps the up and coming stalled).

Here’s a really safe December 2016 prediction—maybe good, maybe bad.  World economy could suffer if Trump makes America great again. https://www.moneytips.com/what-economists-are-predicting-for-2017-under-president-trump

Predictions from June 2018—things are good now, but look out. http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-2020-trump-trade/

Many forget the recession of 2000. How did President Bush handle that with the 9/11 disaster? Lowered taxes. Quick recovery. Congress enacted tax cuts to families in 2001 and investors in 2003. EGTRRA saved taxpayers $1.35 trillion over a 10-year period. Democrats hated this one. Said it decreased the government's "income." Note the cons in this article. https://www.thebalance.com/economic-growth-and-tax-relief-reconciliation-act-3305764

President Obama returns

Obama raised taxes during a recession, imposed new regulations, spent billions on unworkable programs, ruined the health insurance of millions, racheted up racism like we hadn't seen in 50 years, paid off our enemies, stabbed our friends in the back, created a vacuum for ISIS, weaponized the FBI and IRS against the American people, turned a blind eye to riots and civil disobedience, sneered at our values and religion, created low expectations to guarantee his success, compromised the press, took over the job of Congress when he didn't like their inaction on immigration, and talked incessantly about himself for 8 years. I welcome him entering the race against Trump--it will remind everyone why Trump won.

The Great Recession--was it?

The academic definition of a recession set by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research described the last recession as the 18-month period from December 2007 to June 2009. Using the broader definition of the word “recession” as a period of reduced economic activity, it is customary these days to claim the recession as two years,  the period from December 2007 to January 2010--"The Great Recession."  That would give the Bush administration 12 months and Obama administration 12 months.  Obama, however, had Democrat control of both houses his first two years, and Bush was saddled with a hostile Congress his final two years, led by Reid and Pelosi. The Democratic Party controlled a majority in both chambers of the 110th for the first time since the end of the 103rd Congress in 1995  (2 independents voted with Democrats). The Recession was global, but in the U.S. it belongs to the Democrats, with the roots of the housing crisis going back to1977 and the Community Reinvestment Act.

The current struggle to stop tax reform and keep economy busting regulations in place is led by Democrats even today, with a number of anti-Trumper Republicans assisting them out of personal animosity for the president.  The sluggish economy finally lifted in the final year of Obama’s reign with a Republican Congress. Determined and heroic Americans both liberals and conservatives in small businesses and the energy fields began to regain their footing, and the stock marked recovered.

Since November 2016, there has been more hope and change in the economy, something Obama just couldn’t deliver, despite his promises. Trump's detractors say he inherited a robust economy--which is only partially true--the Democrats had forgotten the middle income worker (aka "deplorables" according to Clinton).
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cra-debate-a-users-guide-2009-6
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-for-the-president-in-latest-trump-scoreboard-2017-11-03

http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/no-troop-surge-as-110th-congress-gets-to-work-the-call-is-raise-minimum-wage-end-iraq-war/
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/impact-110th-congress-us-foreign-policy

The Great Recession was made great by President Obama

The last recession was over (according to the way the federal government figures these things) in June 2009, before any of Obama's ARRA programs hit the pavement and wallets of unions and government workers. And today he's taking credit for turning around the longest "Great Recession" in our country's history, and proud that unemployment is at 4.9%. Could be, but homelessness in Columbus is at an all time high, as is SNAP participation, and labor force participation is lower than in the 1970s, and people are scrambling to pay for health insurance. He even takes credit for the slowing increase in health care costs, even though that had been going on for 4 years before he took office, and is now on the way back up. The turn around we do have is because Republican governors pulled it out for their states with rebuilding small business and finding new sources of energy. The absurd length of this last recession's fits and starts economic "come back" can be laid right at his socialism feet. The only president who took longer was FDR.

Obamanomics failed

Jeff Jacoby writes: Barack Obama claims that the economy, "by every metric," is better than when he came into office. In truth, a depressing array of "metrics" shows an economy that has yet to get back on its feet — notwithstanding the unprecedented sums spent by Washington in the form of stimulus projects, bailouts, and gargantuan budget deficits. This has been the weakest economic recovery in modern times. Seven years in, it's clear: Obamanomics was tried . . . and failed. . . The labor force participation rate — the share of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one — has sunk to 62.5 percent, a level not seen since the Carter administration. Since the recession ended, the economy has grown at an annual rate of just 2.2 percent. That is way below average for post-recession recoveries."

http://www.jeffjacoby.com/18338/the-weakest-economic-recovery-in-modern-times

What the Democrat candidates say about a recession that ended in June 2009:

"Our middle class is shrinking," one candidate warned during a debate. "Our poor families are becoming poorer, and 70 percent of us are earning the same or less than we were 12 years ago. We need new leadership."

Another candidate scorned the administration's happy talk about unemployment falling to just over 5 percent. "What they forgot to tell you," he told an audience, "is that statistic doesn't include those people who have given up looking for work, those people who are working part time. Add it all together and real unemployment is over 10 percent."

President Obama’s failures aren’t limited to health care

"As the federal government moves forward to implement President Obama's Affordable Care Act, the Department of Health and Human Services is slated to spend millions of dollars promoting the unpopular legislation. In the face of this publicity blitz, it is worth remembering that the law was originally sold largely on four grounds—all of which have become increasingly implausible (lower health care costs, smaller deficits, preservation of existing insurance, increased productivity) . . .”WSJ article by Daniel Kessler

Michael Smith  continues with his observations: “Add to that the failed economic activities, the debacles in "green technology", the various erroneous statements and predictions about "climate change", being wrong about unemployment, being for debt ceilings before being against them, asinine and atrocious foreign policy errors (from day one, I might add) and failing to fulfill his campaign promises, it is very, very difficult to see how the Obama presidency can be objectively categorized as anything less than a dismal failure of epic proportions. The only thing he has proven to be good at is lying just enough to get elected but not impeached - even though there seems to be mounting evidence that he was aided in 2012 by the IRS in suppressing the Tea Party support of his opponent.

Judging by the fact that the rabid "progressives" want the Tea Party caucus in the House and Ted Cruz arrested and imprisoned for sedition, it is not much of a stretch to think that if this were a Republican president, we would have already seen articles of impeachment filed in the House.”

What exactly worked?

Increased deficit?
Loss of religious freedom?
Increased health care costs?
Expanded war zones?
More people on food stamps?
Loss of prestige globally?
More radical Muslim governments in power?
Highest unemployment since WWII?
Businesses sitting on their capital rather than investing it?

And somehow only 10% of the people who supported him in 2008 are defecting?

Unequal Harm: Racial Disparities in the Employment Consequences of Minimum Wage Increases

Increases in minimum wage are very popular with politicians--Democrats run on it, and Republicans don't want to appear to be meanies, so they shuffle along and agree to it. But it is those in the lowest job ranks who get cut first as employers look for ways to save (it doesn't increase their income, you know). When Democrats took over both houses in 2007, it was the first step downward for the coming recession--hit employers hard, then the poor. And most of all, young and black. Unemployment in the current recession is about 25% for young white males without a high school diploma, but 50% for young blacks. But why?

The authors find that they’re more likely to be employed in eating and drinking places–nearly one out of three black young adults without a high school diploma works in the industry. Businesses in this industry generally have narrow profit margins and are more likely to be adversely impacted by a wage mandate. There’s also substantial variation in regional location, as black young adults are overwhelmingly located in the South and in urban areas.

Unequal Harm: Racial Disparities in the Employment Consequences of Minimum Wage Increases | EPI Study

Here's how one small businessman (RV parks in Arizona) handled the problem of a 41% increase in 2 years of minimum wage in a heavily labor intensive business. In his case, it was the retirees who were let go, a trade off of experience for younger, faster, healthier workers.

Obama’s Jobless America

The Bush Obama recession is starting to look a whole lot like the Hoover FDR Depression. FDR extended Hoover's attempts to right the economy for a decade by diddling the federal government with a variety of socialist schemes, some of which we're still struggling with (like a poorly planned Social Security trust fund), or were resurrected during the Johnson years for the "war on poverty." When a foxhole is won against poverty, liberals just dig a a new hole in which to throw money.

Morning Bell: Obama’s Jobless America | The Foundry

May Jobs Report Is Troubling as Unemployment Rate Increases | The Heritage Foundation

And sound and look of affluence

On my morning walk today I could hear the sound of traffic roaring both north and south from Rt. 315--several miles away. I could also hear the happy sounds of the Upper Arlington High School band practicing miles away. I saw construction/remodeling signs of contractors in the yards of the upscale neighborhood built in the mid-1970s. Then I picked up a flyer from a real estate sign for 3815 Criswell Drive.

Half a million won't get you much in Huntington Beach, California, or Coolidge Corners, a suburb of Boston, Massachusetts, but it buys a heck of a lot of house in a very convenient neighborhood of Upper Arlington, a community of outstanding schools and community services, minutes to Dublin or downtown Columbus or OSU, Battelle or Chem Abstracts and a stone's throw from one of the country's best golf courses.

1. Almost 3,000 sq ft
2. 112 x 150 lot
3. finished media room
4. bump out on garage for hobbies or third car
5. beautiful yard with patio and irrigation system
6. island kitchen with pantry wall and mud room
7. dining room with wet bar and built-ins
8. marble floors in foyer and kitchen
9. 2nd floor laundry
10. deluxe master bath with jetted tub and shower

So the taxes are over $10,500, but we don't have personal property taxes like some of you do; we don't have mountains and beaches near by, but there is an airport; and of course, we have football out the wazoo.

Today I got an e-mail from Bob, a high school friend warning me Starbucks prices were going up, up and away. (About 6 guys from my high school (1950s) have e-mail lists--and they say women talk. . .) I wrote back and told Bob I judge affluence by . . . kitchen counter tops. Recently our neighborhood had a home tour. You would think laminate counters are a sign of 3rd world poverty. Granite, marble, polished concrete, and the new cabinets to support them, the track lighting to shine on them, and the gorgeous art to hang above them are a sign that Americans are still doing quite well, thank you. Also, I'm a fan of HGTV, and hooked on the home buying "reality" shows (completely unreal). You would think people have seen a rat if the buyers see laminate.

Personally, I think marble is way overrated. It's hard to clean--in fact my kitchen counter never feels clean to me and it's too dark to tell. The instructions for its care read like a school exam, so now I just clean it with anything handy--usually Windex, which I've learned is just about the handiest tool around.

The point of all this is to tell all those economic experts and journalists who for the last 30 years have been telling me how awful it is to be poor in the United States and how we're all going to hell in a hand basket, that many Americans are doing just fine. And they are very, very tired of hearing our scolding, obsequious president diminish what a market economy can provide for most of us, and give hope for the rest. We started our marriage in the bottom quintile 50 years ago and never even noticed we were poor because we had so much for which to be grateful.

Would you paint in a $200 t-shirt?

Mrs. O's $207 t-shirt for 9/11 service day

Would you even buy a $200 t-shirt? This is in keeping with Mrs. O's style--take 40 of your best friends on a trip to Spain and put them up in first class 5 star hotels while the little, unimportant people struggle with a recession, made worse by your husband's tax and spend policies. This "let them eat cake" attitude has given rise to an extended nickname for her, Michelle Antoinette Obama.

I think the tasteful light green cover ups the residents are wearing would have worked just fine for a paint in service day.

Mrs.O - Follow the Fashion and Style of First Lady Michelle Obama - Home - Service and a Statement Tee

Yesterday I bought a $4 Jaclyn Smith t-shirt at KMart (on sale). It is tasteful, practical, a good color for me, it covers what needs to be covered, and if I spill or splash something on it, I'll be sorry, because I think it's a great buy. Jaclyn Smith's designs are great for the mature woman--she's had a relationship with KMart for 25 years and isn't just a brand, but is an entrepreneur who participates in the design and production. I'm a much smarter shopper than Mrs. O. who during the 2008 campaign tried to commiserate with pink collar workers by complaining about her college loans, and the costs of private schools and piano lessons for the girls. Some rich people are clueless about how others live.


My $4 Jaclyn Smith just-because-I-like-it t-shirt

And still Obama wants to raise taxes!

Higher taxes hurt everyone. It particularly hurts the little guy. But that's what FDR did too during the Great Depression of the 1930s-1940s. His little tax increments, like on entertainment or candy, hurt the poorest the most. Now Obama wants to kill investment. Folks, the richest can always go elsewhere with their money--like India or Europe whose economies are growing much faster than ours as they pull back from socialism.

Obama has no intention of turning the economy around. Many panelists on these TV talk shows, cable or broadcast, right and/or left, just don't get it. They keep making hopeful suggestions. But his plan is working--more people than ever are dependent on the federal government.

More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor, a survey of state data by USA Today shows. That’s up at least 17% since the recession began in December 2007.

The program has grown even before the new health care law adds about 16 million people, beginning in 2014. That has strained doctors. Private physicians are already indicating that they’re at their limit, says Dan Hawkins of the National Association of Community Health Centers.

In other areas:

◦More than 40 million people get food stamps, an increase of nearly 50 percent during the economic downturn, according to government data through May; the program has grown steadily for three years.

◦Close to 10 million receive unemployment insurance (nearly four times the number from 2007); benefits have been extended by Congress eight times beyond the basic 26-week program, enabling the long-term unemployed to get up to 99 weeks of benefits; caseloads peaked at nearly 12 million in January.

◦More than 4.4 million people are on welfare, an 18 percent increase during the recession.

As caseloads for all the programs have soared, so have costs, says USA Today:

◦The federal price tag for Medicaid has jumped 36 percent in two years, to $273 billion.

◦Jobless benefits have soared from $43 billion to $160 billion.

◦The food stamps program has risen 80 percent, to $70 billion.

◦Welfare is up 24 percent, to $22 billion.

Stats from Texas Insider which apparently (not clear) got them from USAToday.

You don't have to have a degree in economics to see that in a free, market economy, government programs slow down recovery. It adds costs to hiring and expansion, it competes with private employers and industries, and encourages people to stay home and wait til something better comes along, thus extending the slow down. The blueprint for government expansion while depressing the economy was laid out during FDR's reign. Obama's right on the plan.