Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Judging polices on intentions rather than results

We have so many "feel good" policies that drain us dry, and should be a warning, but our leaders never learn, and perhaps the citizen-voters don't either. Virtually every transfer of wealth program in the War on Poverty failed a the macro level, and struggled at the micro. Like Head Start. The government's own studies at year 50 showed almost no advantaged for the thousands invested in each child. But it feels good, hope never dies, and the program will continue to be a bloated, over-sold, under achieving with good intentions so you can get back to your nice life. These programs make politicians wealthy, they get them reelected. These programs provide millions of jobs for the middle class bureaucrats and their staff who run them, from the grant writers, to suppliers and operators, to social workers to the low income who are hired in to staff them.

This article is 22 years old--but not much has changed. https://fee.org/articles/why-the-war-on-poverty-failed/

I remember the Harrington book that launched LBJ's war. I was so excited we could end poverty in my life time. However, the standard for poverty simply went up to accommodate a perpetual lower class. Then we went to "gap" instead of material wealth. Or looked at ZIP codes. Then we judged all by race, color and ethnicity, not actual need. And in all the administrations since LBJ, only the Trump years made an actual, real dent and improved the lives of millions without robbing Peter to pay Paul. And that was just too scary for leaders of both parties--loss of power, sound the alarms!




"The welfare state is self-perpetuating. By undermining the social norms necessary for self-reliance, welfare creates a need for even greater assistance in the future. President Obama plans (2014) to spend $13 trillion over the next decade on welfare programs that will discourage work, penalize marriage and undermine self-sufficiency."

And scholars will always disagree. The Accomplishments and Lessons of the War on Poverty | Scholars Strategy Network

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Where are the workers?

Yet still Joe Biden pretends he needs to "save" Trump's booming economy with inflationary government goosing.

NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg reports: [From the Wall St. Journal]

Small businesses continue to struggle to find workers to fill open positions. Forty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 3 points from June and a record high reading. Unfilled job openings have remained far above the 48-year historical average of 22 percent.

Overall, 61 percent reported hiring or trying to hire in July, down 2 points from June. The issue will be whether the supply of labor will cooperate. Owners’ plans to fill open positions remain at high levels, with a seasonally adjusted net 27 percent planning to create new jobs in the next three months, down 1 point from June’s record high reading.

Operating almost like a law of physics, a labor shortage naturally and reliably motivates employers to increase the incentive for employees and potential employees to show up for work. Mr. Dunkelberg reports:

Seasonally adjusted, a net 38 percent reported raising compensation, down 1 point from June’s record high of 39 percent. A net 27 percent plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up 1 point from June and a 48-year record high reading. There is little an owner can do to attract needed employees other than offer higher compensation."  Where Are the Workers? - WSJ

Wall St. Journal, "Where are the workers?" Aug. 5, 2021





TB vaccine is 100 years old--and it's not 100%; and flu season is coming

 Although we have the BCG vaccine for TB, it isn't 100% and other public health measures are necessary to control the disease. Killing nearly 1.5 million people in 2019, it stood as the leading global cause of death from an infectious pathogen, according to the World Health Organization. Do not expect the Covid vaccine to be perfect or 100%.

 Bile and Potatoes, 1921 | The Scientist Magazine® (the-scientist.com)

Although masks don't provide much protection against Covid19, they really help during flu season. I plan to mask up for that. And the flu will probably be baaaack with a vengeance this fall and winter.
"In the United States alone, influenza viruses cause hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of fatalities each year. During the pandemic, however, a drastic change occurred: there was a precipitous drop in infections with influenza and other respiratory viruses—and in some parts of the world, some of these pathogens are nowhere to be found.

. . . Mask wearing, social distancing, and other restrictions implemented to stave off SARS-CoV-2 are thought to be the primary culprits in the decline in other respiratory pathogens in circulation. As such measures are lifted, though, scientists are expecting the missing viruses to return—and are pondering what will happen when that occurs. " The Pandemic Crushed the Flu--What Happens When It Returns? | The Scientist Magazine® (the-scientist.com)

Who controls the information that is supporting your beliefs and values?

There are many ways to interpret statistics for this lockdown, and this is just one of them--Case Fatality Rate--CFR. It is the political slant of the writer which determines which is selected. I'm a conservative Christian, so CFR supports many of my points. The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is about .1% to .2%.  That's higher than the CFR for Covid19.  By age, Covid19 looks very bad, unless you realize many or even most, of the people who were/are most at risk (in China it is 20%) are not in the labor force, and not in school. So why were the schools and the economy shut down?⁠

Most of the fatalities had co-morbidities. So why was the health system which managed those diseases for us put in peril? See the other methods at Ourworldindata.org to find the figures that match your level of fear and anxiety, your politics and your list to the left or right so you can be better informed than the Facebook and Google fact checkers and the Washington Post.

I'm a retired academic librarian (Slavic studies, Latin American studies, agriculture, veterinary medicine over the course of 25 years) and although I've forgotten a lot, I do remember well that to the victor belong the archives. Whoever controls the information controls what you are allowed to know, even in your public library. And keep in mind that public librarians are 223:1, liberal to conservative, higher than the ACLU.   And right now, that is Big Tech. If they can shut down the most powerful man on the globe, the President of the United States, imagine how they can crush us!

Note: Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease course or outcome), where comparatively high rates are indicative of relatively poor outcomes. It also can be used to evaluate the effect of new treatments, with measures decreasing as treatments improve. Case fatality rates are not constant; they can vary between populations and over time, depending on the interplay between the causative agent of disease, the host, and the environment as well as available treatments and quality of patient care.

Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time; the resulting ratio is then multiplied by 100 to yield a percentage. This calculation differs from that used for mortality rate, another measure of death for a given population. Although number of deaths serves as the numerator for both measures, mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the population at risk during a certain time frame. As a true rate, it estimates the risk of dying of a certain disease. Hence, the two measures provide different information. (Britannica)

Saturday, July 31, 2021

Who and what is science? Who can you trust?

Most of you who lived through the tobacco cancer linked investigations and pay outs of the 1990s, would react with shock if you were told to trust R. J. Reynolds "science" about lung disease and smoking today. And that's about how unbiased today's scientists are who are taking money from the federal government (NIH) to investigate the novel virus currently causing the lockdowns and mask orders. Even if the NIH funded scientists are not publishing in that field, they will be shut out of research on immune system, or ivermectin or HCQ as a tool in fighting a global pandemic. If they appear as expert witnesses on a cable show or podcast, they risk their careers and funding if their conclusions don't support Big Pharma, CDC and WHO. The host who books them or interviews them, risks being deplatformed or their monetization contract. 

Trust the "science?" No, follow the money.

Friday, July 30, 2021

Exercise in the afternoon? I'm ready for a nap

Afternoon exercise instead of morning? I'm ready for a nap!

"Exercise training elicits superior metabolic effects when performed in the afternoon compared to morning in metabolically compromised humans." https://physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.14814/phy2.14669?

"Compared to participants who trained in the morning, participants who trained in the afternoon experienced superior beneficial effects of exercise training on insulin-stimulated peripheral glucose disposal, insulin-mediated suppression of adipose tissue lipolysis, fasting plasma glucose levels, exercise performance, and fat mass. In addition, exercise training in the afternoon also tended to elicit superior effects on basal hepatic glucose output."

Well, I'm not metabolically compromised, I hope.

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Obesity and discrimination

Someone sent me a link about obesity by Theodore Dalrymple. There was a paywall, so I didn't read it, but wondered--was she telling me something? Bob and I are both 30 pounds heavier than when we met in 1959.

So I did a search, "Dalrymple obesity" and see there are over a decade of articles by him, each just as alarming as the previous. It seems one is no longer "obese" but "has obesity." That's an important language change. It's a disease in the new medical speak, he says (he doesn't seem to agree with that language). Now it's a pandemic larger than the one we're in right now and accounts for a high death rate. And over 2 billion (in 2014) globally have this disease. It used to be a disease of the rich, but now it's a disease of the poor.
 
Dalrymple, a physician, admits he's prejudiced toward personal responsibility. He's balanced enough to point out evidence going a different direction, like a study on antibiotics which is so much more common in the last 50 years, particularly given to children. Something similar has often occurred to me--we consume an alarming amount of medicines, supplements, toxins, and chemicals that produce a stew that probably isn't fit for human consumption--the fluoride in water for tooth decay to zinc oxide for skin protection to antibiotics in the meat. And there must be hundreds of examples. I take 2 prescriptions for my heart and one for my bones, then I toss down non-prescription fish oil for my bursitis (it works), calcium for my bones, and Vit. B complex for my brain health (not sure that's working). Your mileage will vary.

However, whether obesity is a "have" or an "is", overweight people of every ethnic group, sex, age, and race face serious discrimination and bullying everyday. I believe it is far worse than racial discrimination and because it affects both health and careers, existing or new laws and regulations don't stop it. There have been advocates, support groups and ad campaigns, urging the non-obese who are now the minority to just be kind, nice, and non-prejudiced, but so far I don't see it working.
 
So while the jury is out on the cause of 73.6% of Americans being either overweight or obese, it's everyone's responsibility to be kinder and stop the discrimination. No rioting or culture cancelling necessary.

Saturday, July 24, 2021

Thoughts on Cuba

Why now, Cuba? First, when Castro took over they were propped up by the USSR. Then when it collapsed they turned to Venezuela which Cuba had infected with Communism. In turn it collapsed and Cuba lost again in the game of dictators. Both countries lost enormously in the exodus of its middle and upper class. When tourism finally came back to Cuba under Obama's circumventing the law, the pandemic soon followed. Supported by relatives in the U.S. for decades with remittances (billions), the Cuban government and its lackeys and apologists in the U.S. media and the Democrat party, the people have said, ENOUGH. Is it too late?

We could learn from Cuba and Venezuela, but will we? We have powerful socialism lovers in Congress and the White House.

https://providencemag.com/video/venezuelas-chavismo-disaster/  

Our media flunkies are bragging about the literacy rate in Cuba. What's to read? More Communist propaganda about how great the Castros were? More lies about the heroic Motherland? And who can trust the data from a Communist country? Other Latin American countries also saw literacy and health care improve in the same decades, and they didn't have to give up their freedoms. Also, if a family tried to provide their children with religious instruction, those children would then not be allowed a higher education and a career. How's that for literacy?

And it's all coming to the USA if you don't pay attention to your local school board, stop the cancel culture workshops in your churches and community organizations, if you don't put the NFL and MLB owners in their place by refusing to play (watch) their games or support their sponsors, if you don't go to the polls in 2022, if you don't insist on honest elections free of "pandemic" special rules for some.


Cuba isn't the only western country with political prisoners. Compare the January 6 prisoners with those arrested for the ongoing assaults on Democrat run cities and federal property. You can't even find a total because our "free press" refuses to investigate. Here's just ONE list for ONE riot in ONE city. Our Columbus still hasn't recovered from the Floyd riots. 


There will never be a fair investigation as long as Nancy Pelosi is in charge, because she's the one who dropped the ball (deliberately, I believe) when she knew from undercover investigation that people planned to storm the capitol. That said, she's ordered no investigation of who killed Ashli Babbitt, and unless that's included there should be no investigation.

Friday, July 23, 2021

Media bias

Mika Brzezinski of MSNBC is blaming Trump that Biden minority voters aren't getting the vaccine. She's blaming the people who are telling the truth for "misinformation" on cable news (which Democrats dominate). She's the culprit. No one on Fox or Newsmax has told people not to get the vaccine, but plenty on MSNBC and CNN have blamed Trump who pushed to have the vaccines developed for their failed roll out. Trump is living rent free in their heads.

Thursday, July 22, 2021

The wealth gap--again

Democrats have whined and moaned about the wealth gap or wealth inequality for as long as I can remember--even back to the 40 years I was a Democrat. That Jeff Bezos and Nancy Pelosi would laugh at my current wealth compared to theirs really doesn't bother me. What bothers me is when Bezos can buy and sell Pelosi and SHE is fearful of that gap between them. She's the one insecure, not me. Together they (with other Democrats and CEOs) pass laws that take my wealth to transfer to people who probably need a social safety net, but she and he won't pay for it.

What really helps the poor are good jobs, not more government handouts. Under Trump, real wealth held by the bottom half of households grew faster — over three times faster — than wealth held by the top half of households in the 2017-2020 period, and almost three times faster than for the top 1 percent. Now Biden is paying people to not return to work, something that will not help them advance and succeed.

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Thank goodness for men who can fix things

I'm back in my Columbus home at my desk by the living room window. While we've been gone (at Lakeside), the light bulbs have all been replaced and the windows and screens have been washed by a friend who started a handyman service after he retired from his corporate CEO job (likes to putter). I need sunglasses it's so bright. And at Lakeside, all our 1944 cast iron plumbing is being replaced by plumbers who are strong and thin enough to slide into the crawl space next to the basement to get access.

 Old age is certainly exciting. So many changes.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

And I still don't have a smart phone

Four years ago I wrote this. Nothing much has changed.

Not only do I not know how to use a smart phone as many my age do, but I don’t know how to do the simplest, ordinary everyday tasks familiar to my grandmothers (b. 1876 and 1896): harness a carriage horse, kill, gut and pluck a chicken, milk a cow, trim a kerosene wick or bank the stove with corn cobs to heat water for a weekly bath. Nothing I did in my professional life (academic librarian in Slavic Studies, agriculture, veterinary medicine at 2 different universities) lasted even a year or two, and unless they were digitized, my publications have disappeared. Did the student reconstructing road kill for a class project go on to make a difference, or the horse on the treadmill help someone get tenure? It was exceptionally interesting--but did it matter?

I do think education is over rated. At least higher education Did my job make a difference like the men who build, plumb and wire houses that last for over a hundred years? Or was it even as important as the commercial truck drivers who deliver food that someone else has grown, harvested and packaged for my use?
 
I probably spent half my professional life attending meetings, or writing reports, or staring at budgets of cuts that never seem to come together. At annual review time with my boss (he visited each library) I'd scoop everything off my ancient desk and put it in a box. About 6 weeks later I'd look in the box--usually nothing needed attention. Occasionally today I run into a former dean or department chair at Panera's who remembers me, and that's nice, but I do wonder if they have the same thoughts I do.

There is a new normal after the pandemic

I doubt that I'm the only one who is questioning the "new normal" for work, church and education, let alone reliance on virtual medicine. I'm stunned by the happy talk. No one expected a pandemic to disrupt our lives; so why do smart people expect there will be no more world wide disruptions or disasters of a kind we're not prepared for?

Like a volcanic explosion to create another "year without summer" like in the 19th century or a little ice age to last 500 years instead of global warming?

Like China totally in control of the cyber-grid and closing down the financial system, the churches, and their puppets in the White House?

Or a bio-disaster escaping from our own government supported labs?

Or a natural plague of rodents like the mice in Australia?

Or increasing shutdown/lockdown of Christians and our courts upholding that oppression?

Or unusual tropical diseases brought in across our border by illegals from many countries entering through Mexico then scattered around the country by plane and bus to be dropped in unsuspecting communities?

We had a taste earlier of a gasoline supply hack, and a hack of one of the major food suppliers (increasingly controlled by only 4 companies). Those hacks should have shown us how vulnerable we are, how fragile the safety net is. We've already seen Big Tech become more powerful than an elected President while half the country and one party looked the other way. Why do we assume this behemoth can't shut down the entire government, the military and the science complex we're depending on to solve our moral and spiritual problems?

Monday, July 19, 2021

Those who misled us during the pandemic

"The United States suffered through two lethal waves of contagion in the past year and a half. The first was a viral pandemic that killed about one in 500 Americans—typically, a person over 75 suffering from other serious conditions. The second, and far more catastrophic, was a moral panic that swept the nation’s guiding institutions.

Instead of keeping calm and carrying on, the American elite flouted the norms of governance, journalism, academic freedom—and, worst of all, science. They misled the public about the origins of the virus and the true risk that it posed. Ignoring their own carefully prepared plans for a pandemic, they claimed unprecedented powers to impose untested strategies, with terrible collateral damage. As evidence of their mistakes mounted, they stifled debate by vilifying dissenters, censoring criticism, and suppressing scientific research."

Sunday, July 18, 2021

Joanne Reece Launer (1933-2021)

A friend called today and told us of the death of Joanne Reece Launer, a friend since 1967, one of the first we met when we moved to Columbus. We were in a Couples Group with her and her first husband, Jim, at First Community Church, and they lived just a few blocks from us. We knew her daughter as a toddler and remember when her son Tim was born. She was 88.
Joanne Pugh Reece Launer. On Sunday, June 21, 2021, Jo went home to be with the Lord at the age of 88 after struggling with Parkinson's disease for several years. Joanne ("Gumpy" and "JoJo" to her 6 grandchildren) was born on February 17, 1933, in Dayton, OH to Walter and Margaret Pugh. She graduated from Springboro High School, received her elementary education degree from Miami University in 1955, and taught for many years in Kettering and Upper Arlington, OH. On April 11, 1964, she married the first love of her life, James Sabine Reece. They shared 28 wonderful years together and raised two children, Christine (Reece) Mathews and James Timothy Reece. After being widowed for 18 years, she married the second love of her life, Emil Andy Launer on March 13, 2011. They were devoted to one another and enjoyed 10 laughter-filled years. Joanne's life was marked by her love for her family and friends, her passion for education, and by living out her faith in the Lord through her wonderful cooking, hospitality, and service to others. She was an avid Cincinnati Reds and Ohio State football fan all her life, as well as a killer Rummikub player. She was active in church membership and attended several Bible studies. After her retirement, she kept busy traveling with friends, substitute teaching, and leading tours at the Ohio Statehouse. She was an extremely loyal friend and had a sharp wit and a fantastic sense of humor. Joanne was preceded in death by her parents Daniel and Margaret, her brothers Bob and Tom, and her first husband Jim. She is survived by her husband, Andy; sister, Sandy (Larry) Hefflin; children, Christine (Todd) Mathews and Tim (Harriet) Reece; and her grandchildren, Amanda, Trenton, Aaron, Kathryn, Luke, and Rachel. In lieu of flowers, donations may be sent to the charity of your choice, in Jo's memory. A Celebration of Life service will be held at Dublin Baptist Church later this summer. Please visit www.schoedinger.com to share a memory or send condolences to Jo's family. Arrangements Entrusted to SCHOEDINGER NORTHWEST, 1740 Zollinger Rd., Upper Arlington, OH 43221. Legacy.com

Saturday, July 17, 2021

The true cost of food--final 2021 report by Rockefeller Foundation

This report it being touted by various liberal sources charging the "American diet" or "food system" is killing us, the environment, damaging the health of minorities and costing all of us $1.1 trillion annually, much more than the price tag.
 
I've glanced through it (if Washington Post loves it, it must be worth reading, right?) I can't see there's anything different than what I knew when I was Agriculture Economics librarian at OSU in the 1980s. Except the heavy emphasis on equity and underserved communities. That's a giant wet snow ball that gets bigger with every report from the foundations and universities.
 
One thing for sure--as you see more and more stats on the inequities of the pandemic, you can certainly look at diet, obesity, and its outcomes. We were told this from the beginning of Covid that co-morbidities are a serious problem. Obesity is 1.2x more prevalent in Black Americans and diagnosed diabetes are 1.7x higher in Latin Americans than White Americans, and 1.5x higher in
Black Americans than White Americans. So behind the curtain is the "blame whites" for the diets and culture of minorities, even though co-morbidities among whites are nothing to brag on. If we've learned nothing else, we've been told blacks should be arrested, or die, or buy homes at the same percentage as their population.

If you read the bibliography/footnotes/side bars/ tables, you see enough holes to drive a truck of pastries through. This is not to say the "system" isn't wasteful or fattening, but the suggestion is always for big brother to do something--do anything. I've been reading these final reports for 40 years. And Americans just get fatter, waste more food, and eat out even more.
 
And now that Biden is in office, what's another trillion or so? Do you really think the $$ from the $2.2 trillion American Rescue Plan will go to eat more vegetables and fruits? Families with a joint income of less than $150,000 will receive $3,600 per child under the age of 6, and up to $3,000 for children between 6 and 17 years old in 2021.
"Even using this limited scope, human health impacts are the biggest “hidden” cost of the food system, with close to $1.1 trillion per year (est.) in health-related costs to American taxpayers. The majority of these costs—$604 billion—are attributable to health care costs related to diet-related diseases such hypertension, cancer, and diabetes. The additional costs are impacts from health care costs from workplace injuries, food insecurity and pollution, and additional costs attributable to obesity." p. 17

You can down load this. Wonderful graphics. Just remember the direction it goes.

Biden working for censorship like Hong Kong and Cuba

Biden is working quickly to control/shutdown freedom of speech. Like Hong Kong and Cuba. Both Communist governments.

"“We’re flagging problematic posts for Facebook , ” said White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on Thursday, referring to coronavirus misinformation. Meanwhile, the Surgeon General, an officer in the department of Health and Human Services, released a report with a page of suggestions on “what technology platforms can do” to crack down on certain information. The Verge reported that officials at Twitter “met with the surgeon general’s office on Monday to discuss its misinformation policies.” (Wall St. Journal, "Censorship coordination deepens," July 16, 2021)

Democrats--the party of wealth and power

How often during the last year of wokeness have middle- and lower-class Americans listened to multimillionaires of all races and genders lecture them on their various pathologies and oppressions? . . .
 
Do we need another performance-art sermon on America’s innate unfairness from billionaire entertainers such as Beyonce, Jay-Z, or Oprah Winfrey, or from multimillionaire Delta or Coca-Cola CEOs? . . .
 
By 2018, Democratic representatives were in control of all 20 of the wealthiest congressional districts. In the recent presidential primaries and general election, 17 of the 20 wealthiest ZIP codes gave more money to Democratic candidates than to Republicans. . .
 
Class is fluid; race is immutable. So by fixating on race, the left believes that it can divide America into permanent victimizers and victims—at a time when race and class are increasingly disconnecting.

Friday, July 16, 2021

Let them die says CRT proponent

I haven't heard any parents opposing CRT threatening blacks with death, but that's how the proponents are responding--let them die. Michelle Leete, vp of PTA and NAACP in Fairfax, VA. So all you Democrats believing this is no problem, that it's just academic, listen up. . . It's Marxism.  I'm calling it hate speech.

What is choice--to a Democrat?

Democrats still don’t understand choice. One can have a vaccine (aka the shot which isn’t actually a vaccination), and still advocate for freedom of choice. Democrats only think abortion when they say choice, when that is destroying someone else’s body. A choice to kill. The most vulnerable. The weakest. Those who can’t fight back. Democrats ridiculed Trump’s Warp Speed, called it dangerous, said he’d never meet the deadline, said it was unsafe. Now they fret that many don't trust the vaccine.  Well, duh!  Fauci, who Trump put on TV every night, and who was supposed to be advising him, was actually working behind the scenes covering up his deeds with the Wuhan Lab. The media said calling it the Wuhan Virus was racist, further trying to smear Trump. And as they all now admit sheepishly, it most likely was a leak (or a deliberate plant) from a 3rd rate lab that U.S. taxpayers were funding and with whom Fauci had been working by funding a non-profit through the NIH. So that implicates us all, if we use the systemic racism meme of the woke—we taxpayers helped the Chinese spread a pandemic.

Also, after denying inflation for months, the Biden folks are finally admitting it, but still going ahead with the 3+ trillion demands to spread it. I saw a very ordinary steak at the grocery today for close to $20/pound. Used car prices are up 85%. We can’t trust Biden and cronies on anything—not health, not inflation, not Cuba, not withdrawal and leaving our allies behind in Afghanistan, not securing the border, not stopping the drug traffic, not protecting our freedom of speech and assembly, and definitely not with our money no matter what they say it’s for—Covid, infrastructure, families, etc. And Blacks particularly should not trust the most racist president ever (based on his speeches and voting record of the past)—he thinks they are too dumb to get an ID!