1229 Political advertising a roadmap? I hope not!

Steven J. Fredericks, president-CEO of TNS Media Intelligence, presented 2005 ad spending predictions at last week’s AdWatch Conference. Among other figures I noted this one with some concern, since we in Ohio were drowned with political advertising in 2004, some of it very nasty.

“Political advertising, Mr. Fredericks noted, has become a perennial category, as well. “Election 2004 was a watershed event with spending exceeding $1.45 billion,” he said. “The number and diversity of advertisers and messages created a roadmap of new standards by which future campaigns and advertising battles will be waged.” More than 400 mayors are up for re-election this year, he noted, including in San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit and San Diego, will receive an injection of political advertising dollars this year thanks to high profile mayoral elections and “New York TV will get a huge chunk of change from Mayor Bloomberg,” he said. Outside of elections, special interest groups are advertising around causes, such as prescription drugs, the environment and, what is likely to be the next big the next big issue, a Supreme Court Justice appointment. To date, those groups have spent $90 million on advertising, according to TNS data. Fourth quarter, estimates Mr. Fredericks, could see an additional $50 million from groups spending money in preparation for the 2006 midterm election.

Mr. Fredericks also took on the notion that the TV upfront is considered a leading indicator of the medium’s advertising market, noting that the cumulative error over 14 years of predictions has amounted to $24.5 billion -- about $1.9 billion a year. In only five of 14 years was total TV ad spending within five percentage points of the upfront-based prediction. It’s a “poor predictor” because buyers can exercise options to cancel their buys during first through third quarters, the networks vary their sellout levels from year to year and, he said, drawing what were likely cynical chuckles from the buyers in the crowd, sellers are the primary reporting sources for the totals.”

Complete predictions here.