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The AIDS Estimate

What's the reason for overestimating the effects or spread of a terrible disease? WaPo reports on the inaccuracy of the UN estimates of the size and course of the AIDS epidemic.

The United Nations' top AIDS scientists plan to acknowledge this week that they have long overestimated both the size and the course of the epidemic, which they now believe has been slowing for nearly a decade, according to U.N. documents prepared for the announcement.

AIDS remains a devastating public health crisis in the most heavily affected areas of sub-Saharan Africa. But the far-reaching revisions amount to at least a partial acknowledgment of criticisms long leveled by outside researchers who disputed the U.N. portrayal of an ever-expanding global epidemic. Source Washington Post (may need registration)

It is good that 40% fewer will suffer, unfortunately I doubt that it means that the programs in place have been successful, but rather those who run the programs have been inflating the numbers in order to get more money. The unintended consequences are probably doner fatigue both from NGOs and governments, and less money directed to other programs that need it.

I've written about this before: "Western interference in the economies, politics and cultures of third world developing countries has not turned out well. The American Left loves to point fingers at Christian missionaries who started hospitals, schools, churches and developed a written language for Africans, Asians, and Islanders, but their footprints are tiny compared to the disaster of foreign aid from Europe and the U.S. The missionaries at least were accountable to God and their denomination; the governments and the U.N. agencies who soaked the guilt-swamped for more money funded various interventions in their societies which were accountable to no one, not even us taxpayers, elevating a class of dictators, bureaucrats and home grown thieves."

For all the statistics on what aid has done, check The White Man's Burden; why the West's efforts to aid the rest have done so much ill and so little good, by William Easterly (Penguin Press, 2006) and The Trouble with Africa; why foreign aid isn't working, by Robert Calderisi (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006). From WaPo's review of Easterly's book: [He writes about] "the spirit of benign meddling that lies behind foreign aid, foreign military interventions and such do-gooder institutions as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations. In his account, such efforts are fatally contaminated by what the philosopher Karl Popper called "utopian social engineering." Easterly's list of well-meaning villains stretches from the economist Jeffrey Sachs to the rock singer and charity impresario Bono."