Study estimates that "6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2% of non-citizens voted in 2010." 14% of non-citizens are registered to vote, whether or not they actually do is another matter (It’s a crime, by the way). This could conceivably have changed the make up of the Senate in 2010. Plus, many of those illegals voting actually have fake documents, which throws in question an ID to vote, doesn’t it?
The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, a “data journalism” hub a la Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight that prioritizes insights gleaned from number-crunching above left/right argumentation. In fact, the conclusion to the post isn’t that the study’s results necessarily cast a pall over the integrity of some U.S. elections and even the legitimacy of ObamaCare’s passage.
Democrats claim there isn’t massive fraud in our elections, but how much is enough to poison the results, or people’s respect for our system. Just the school board outcome? How about the bond issue for the schools? Or maybe the city council? State legislature? How do you want to steal YOUR vote? Most of this fraud favors Democrats? If you are a Democrat are you good with that? Are you OK with a win of say, 312, for your guy if there’s a heavy immigrant turn out? And don’t bring up Florida in 2000! It was insulting to blacks, registered voters, that they couldn’t figure out a ballot, and Democrats were SO SURE of their power in that polling district they needed hanging chads to determine “intention.”
Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.
How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
Franken winning a Minnesota seat illegally is a different ballgame. He was the 60th vote for ObamaCare. Replace him in the Senate with Norm Coleman and the law probably never passes.
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