Remember the subprime mortgages? 2008?

"Washington’s new favorite subprime lender is none other than Uncle Sam. In a little noticed report last week—make that not noticed at all—the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the feds will lose $65.2 billion on risky loans and other “credit assistance” in the next fiscal year." Wall St. Journal editorial board.

This can be figured 2 ways. One is the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (FCRA), and the other is based on a measure of fair value. "Using FCRA procedures—the standard way in which costs of credit programs are measured in the federal budget—CBO estimates that new loans and loan guarantees issued in 2025 would cost the federal government $2.4 billion over their lifetime. Using the fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations by accounting for market risk, CBO estimates that those loans and guarantees would have a lifetime cost of $65.2 billion. (Market risk is the component of financial risk that remains even with a well-diversified portfolio; it arises from shifts in macroeconomic conditions, such as productivity and employment, and from changes in expectations about future macroeconomic conditions.)"

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60682?