Why Al Gore can't control the climate

and should get his big footprint off our economic necks. A) He's not God. B) He's not a scientist, he just plays one on TV.

10 episodes of global warming and cooling that cannot have been caused by atmospheric CO2
1. 15,000 years ago, sudden climatic warming caused dramatic melting of large Ice Age ice sheets.

2. A few centuries later, temperatures plummeted.

3. 14,000 years ago, global temperatures increased.

4. 13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged.

5. 13,200 years ago, global temperatures rose rapidly.

6. 12,700 years ago global temperatures plunged sharply

7. 11,500 years ago, global temperatures rose sharply

8. 8,200 years ago, a sudden global cooling lasted a few centuries.

9. 1000 AD global temperatures rose several degrees to begin the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted a few centuries, then around 1230 AD dropped 4 degrees C in 20 years.

10. 1600 AD global temperatures cooled several degrees at the beginning of the Little Ice Age.

See this page by Don J. Easterbrook, list of publications here. His was just one of 100 scientists that I could have listed.

The B Word

"How often do we hear and use the B word? We're really busy. Can you think of the last time you asked a friend how she was doing and she said, 'Great. Things are really moving slowly. . .' " p. 20

Yes, if you had asked me, that might not have been my exact phrase, but yesterday when I told a woman sitting next to me in Bible Study, who whispered she'd been too busy to complete the lesson, that I'm never busy, you would have thought I'd said, "I have leprosy." It truly is almost a sin on the level of adultery a large carbon footprint to admit you don't like to feel "busy" or rushed or frantic so you plan accordingly. Living that way--frantic and busy--is the adrenalin rush, the home-grown, safe and legal drug for millions of Americans. But not me.

Usually, I wouldn't choose to read the book I'm reviewing, "One month to live; 30 days to a no-regrets life," but someone noticed my blog and made me an offer I couldn't refuse--a book to write about. I wasn't busy, so after some negotiation, I said Yes. More to come.

When is a course description a lecture in disguise?

When it's "gender studies." This is University of Illinois, Fall 2007 course listing. The seething anger in this course description is palpable. Don't be fooled. There are set-asides for women and minorities in all government building projects, and like affirmative action, they hurt women and minorities in the long run because their credentials are then always in question. If I were a female architectural student, I sure wouldn't waste my precious hours (it's a difficult curriculum) on going to this class--I'd just read the description and turn in a paper using all the victim jargon I could think of.

Architecture 424/Gender and Women’s Studies 424: GENDER AND RACE IN CONTEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Anthony) TR 11:30-12:50 210 A Architecture

Out of all licensed architects in the American Institute of Architects (AIA), why are only 11% women, 3% Latino/a, 2% Asian, and less than 1% African American? In 2006, what accounts for such staggeringly low figures? Why has architecture lagged so far behind its counterparts of law and medicine, where sizeable advances already have been made? When so-called “minorities” are rapidly becoming majorities in so many American cities, what are the consequences when the diversity of the population is not reflected in the diversity of the architectural profession? And how can this be changed? How can the new generation of architects better respond to diversity and begin to change the culture of the profession? How can you, personally, make a difference? The purpose of this course is to introduce students to an aspect of architecture that has all too often been overlooked: the role of women and people of color (i.e., African Americans, Latino/Latina Americans, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and others). As in many other fields, the work of white males has historically dominated architecture. Furthermore, due to the persistence of the "star system," valuable contributions of women architects and architects of color, for the most part, have not been recognized. To a certain extent, this pattern can also be seen in the related environmental design professions of landscape architecture and urban design. This course calls attention to the work of both women architects and architects of color as consumers, critics, and creators of the environment--as clients and users, writers and researchers, design practitioners, educators, and students. Prerequisite: Junior standing or consent of instructor.

Subtext: White Men: watch your backs!

Evangelical Visitor, vol.1, no.1, 1887

Technically, I can't put this in my collection of premiere issues because it is scanned and on the internet in the collection of Messiah College for The Brethren in Christ Church (River Brethren). One of my great- great- somethings was a founder of this denomination [see correction below], so I thought I'd take a look. Reading through it, nothing seems any different than the German Baptist Brethren/Church of the Brethren of the 1880s. There was an annual conference, "love feast" (communion) with foot washing, modest clothing for both men and women. It was a mix of Mennonite, Brethren and Methodist, with emphasis on piety, just like the other Brethren. I'm not sure why these groups had to split up--it's usually the leadership--nor do I know why they didn't all vote to get back together in 2008 (300th anniversary) since the 6 or 7 groups are tiny by themselves. Together they probably don't reach 100,000 in membership in the U.S. Ah well, they didn't ask me, and I haven't been a member for over 35 years.

Having said that, I found this item by "C.S." from Louisville, Ohio sounding just like the "emergent church" controversy of today:

It has been, and is yet the aim of some professors of religion [i.e. people who profess to be religious] to get religion into such a position, that there is no cross connected with it. Men have been trying to dress up religion so that the offense of the cross should cease. . . they make daily compromise with the world.

Another fun item was reminiscences of the "old days" in various Ohio counties--like the 1850s--that people sent in. One obituary observed that the "brother" was not a believer, although he was married to one. The cost was $1.00 a year for 12 issues, and if you wanted to write something for the paper, you submitted it in ink and used only one side of the paper. The Elkhart, Indiana church had had a June Love Feast at the Brethren Meeting house, 16 mi. south of town with wonderful testimonies, Bible studies, exhortations, and a supper, with people returning home the next day rejoicing.

Based just on the numbering (vol. 121, no.1, Winter 2007), I'm guessing that the (new title) journal for BIC "In Part" is the granddaughter of Evangelical Visitor. She's handsome, fashionable, and topical, but not as spiritually satisfying.

Update: I checked my genealogy database and my notes say that my ancestor, John Wenger, split from the River Brethren in Montgomery Co. Ohio over issues of closed communion and meeting houses. His group (Pentecostal Brethren in Christ) were known as the Wengerites. All this is in Daniel Wenger's book on the Wengers. His son Christian Wenger was the father of my great-grandmother, Nancy. This may be more than you wanted to know about a tiny Ohio sect, but "The name Brethren in Christ became more common and about 1861 three groups in OH called themselves Brethren in Christ; the original River Brethren, the Wengerites and the Swankites. The River Brethren officially adopted the name Brethren in Christ in 1863 at the outbreak of the civil war in order for drafted conscientious objectors to obtain legal recognition as members of an established religious organization opposed to war. By 1924 the last of the Pentecostal Brethren in Christ had joined the Pilgrim Holiness Church (which merged with the Wesleyan Methodist Church to form the Wesleyan Church)."

Change as a campaign theme

USAToday (Jan. 15) reports "demand for change," "change directions," "new course," "major shake-up," and "call for change"--whimpers from the electorate it anecdotally interviewed. Why? How old are these people? Ten? It's got to be the silliest one word mantra I've heard. We've had either a Bush or a Clinton in the White House since 1988, and Hillary is preaching change!

Barry Obama's cute and a good orator. So what is change-worthy about that? A politician's song and dance. What's new? Just because George W. Bush wasn't fluent, doesn't mean you fall all over yourself for mellifluous tones and call and response rhythm.

And why would we elect a trial lawyer who's Johnny-one-note on universal health care when trial lawyers are one of the reasons our medical cost are so high and people are leaving the medical profession. "Change" he says, so everyone can have Medicaid level health care instead of just the poor.

And why would we elect a man whose idea of "change" is to trade in wife #1 for a trophy wife--someone younger, richer and more svelte or blond than the first (or second, in Rudy's case).

Why should we elect from a group of senators who now claim "change" for the social security system they haven't looked at seriously in 8 years, who have failed to stop the AMT, a very punitive tax originally set up to catch 155 rich folk and now affects millions, and haven't stopped the earmarks going to their colleagues in their "scratch my back" but don't change now schemes.

Why would we expect change from senators or governors who don't think it is important to secure our borders, or to have an ID to vote, and who see no reason not to continue luring Mexican citizens here with promises of social benefits like education, health care, housing, etc.

None of these candidates, Republican or Democrat, fit my definition of "change," so I haven't even considered that as a requirement.

Desperate and dateless in Michigan

Let's see. A failing economy. High unemployment. Tax increases. And a female leader at the wheel. That's the formula Republicans should be pointing out in Michigan, but they won't. They're giving the same happy talk you hear from Democrats! Jennifer Granholm, Michigan’s Democratic governor, just keeps doing more of the same. A real 1960s-1970s sort of gal (although I have no idea how old she is.) Tax her way out of the highest unemployment rate in the country; chase away the population that still earns money; cater to the unions. Is this the "change" the Dems keep talking about for the national level.

They always win in Michigan:

1992 Clinton
1996 Clinton
2000 Gore
2004 Kerry

Why bother? They just don't get it up north.

Crazed war vets?

Or maybe crazed journalist looking for a scrap of a story. The New York Times ran a lengthy story about the violent crime wave among returning Gulf War vets, but Power Line crunched a few numbers, and based on the numbers of men and women who have served in Afghanistan and Iraq (700,000+ in 6 years), the violent crime rate for veterans is much, much lower than the general population of that 18-24 age group. The liberal media will stop at nothing to malign our men and women in the armed forces.

And another thing: "Here's another idea: the Times' story on veterans' crimes repeatedly focused on the role of alcoholism, which the paper associated with the stresses of military service. How about a survey that compares alcoholism rates among reporters and soldiers? Just on a hunch, I'll wager a dollar that the alcoholism rate for reporters is higher."

4524

Maybe not the top 10

but certainly better than a lot I've heard. Scientists for better PCR sing about it here. I saw it at the JMLA blog that saw it elsewhere. PCR is polymerase chain reaction which enables researchers to produce millions of copies of a specific DNA sequence in approximately two hours. The music video reveals its history. Kinda catchy . . ."PCR when you need to find out who the daddy is. . . PCR when you need to solve a crime. . . " Great looking performers too.

The job hunt

Matthew, the Well-dressed Librarian has landed a job, and posted some great advice on December 11. He's gay, fashionable, bright and witty, but because I worked a temp job in the employment field in the 80s, and interviewed more librarian candidates than I can remember in my last job, I can testify that he is absolutely on target. Good manners and good taste will help in all fields, so it won't matter if you're looking in another area.

Monday Memories--Bible Studies I have known

Over at Daniel's site (Alaskan Librarian) I saw a note about John Cotton's Milk for Babes, a catechism published in 1646 and in print for 200 years, intended for children and new Christians. It has been digitized by the University of Nebraska. What makes it interesting (for me) is that it includes in this version, information on how it was digitized, including corrections of typographic errors. Sample:

Quest. What is Prayer ?
£nsw. It is a calling upon (a ) God
in the Name of Christ, by the helpe of
the Holy Ghost, according to the will
of God.

I think this is a great definition for prayer, because I've had a bit of a struggle seeing it as "conversation," and "a relationship," which is what we hear these days. I see nothing wrong with the word prayer. Christ's disciples didn't say, "Lord, teach us conversation techniques."

That aside, it did get me to thinking about all the Bible studies I've attended over the years, including last night's led by me, on Matthew's account of Jesus teaching his people how to pray.

My very earliest memories of Bible study are from Faith Lutheran in Forreston, Illinois, and Mrs. T.B. Hirsh using the flannel graph. She (the pastor's wife) was very dramatic and no child ever watched TV more closely than I watched those brightly painted disciples and shepherds move quickly around a flannel field of green and gold, blue and gray. Her nimble fingers would press a cloud in the sky, or a grove of trees on the horizon, or a staff into a hand, all the while I was waiting for the climax of the story from her deep, booming voice. Oh, it was wonderful. I'm sure I had Bible stories at my home church in Mt. Morris before we moved to Forreston, because I remember the little handouts and glossy Sunday School papers with full color pictures, but in my memory bank they've been relegated to the bleacher seats by the more entertaining Mrs. T.B.

My brown thumb

This could make me wish it weren't so. Almost. I could almost walk to this one. Almost. It's cheap, too. Here's another one in Columbus that looks good, although the website never mentions the city (I just happen to know the Historical Society is in Columbus).

All these tips from Jim McCormac

Answer the quiz

and it will pick your candidate. Just yesterday I was thinking (after watching Huckabee on TV) that maybe it was time to switch to Romney, and then I took this quiz. But I didn't think he'd score as low (based on my views) as Rudy!

88% Mitt Romney
76% Fred Thompson
70% John McCain
68% Tom Tancredo
68% Ron Paul
61% Mike Huckabee
61% Rudy Giuliani
31% Bill Richardson
29% Barack Obama
29% Hillary Clinton
28% Chris Dodd
26% John Edwards
25% Dennis Kucinich
25% Mike Gravel
21% Joe Biden

2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

Sunday Search the Archives

This one from Feb. 15, 2006 at Church of the Acronym is worth a repeat--we'll be heading to church in a few hours.

334 Must the church always be a follower?
It won't be next year, or maybe not even 2016, but eventually church musicians and pastors will wake up about the noise and volume of their CCM rock, hip-hop and heavy metal music and the damage the blasting loud speakers cause to hearing just as they realized the dangers of smoking and second hand smoke 20 years ago. Too bad they can't be leaders instead of followers in this important health issue.

When we joined UALC in 1976, every meeting room and event was filled with the blue haze of cigarette smoke (with the exception of the sanctuary). I'd grown up in the Church of the Brethren, so smoking was just a plain old generic sin--below adultery and theft maybe, but certainly right up there with swearing and drunkeness. But Lutheran smokers 30 years ago believed in "freedom in Christ," and you were considered a Pharisee if you mentioned it made your clothes stink or burned your eyes. I'm not sure what turned the tide, but gradually smokers went to one room to breathe each others poisoned fumes, and then outside, and now I never see anyone smoking on the property.

What I remember most about this very serious health issue is that the church was not the leader. It was the follower.

How many of our babies and children and teens will need to lose their hearing in the low and high ranges incrementally, to be tested and fitted for hearing aids by age 40? Noise in the church is the latest blue haze that Christians think they can't do without. "Give me Jesus, but don't make me change anything," could be our motto.

I actually shudder when I see young parents taking small children into our X-Alt services because the parents identify with the music and our leadership knows this is a way to fill the seats. People who will floss for dental health, do pilates and kick boxing for exercise, and watch their cholesterol and calories seem oblivious to protecting their ears.

For a mellow evening out

Enjoy the music of Tony Marinucci --blues, pop and jazz--at Ruth's Chris Steak House, one of Columbus' best known restaurants, on Thursday and Friday evenings. You can make reservations on-line.

Have you got some audio production needs? Tony does that too, as well as wedding photography and commercials. Here's a photo of my son's band, Drive, from Tony's site. You can click to listen--the singer is my son (far left) in his living room.



This is not a commercial--I just think Tony did a great job on their audio mixing and mastering.

Which presidential candidate

is going to step up to the mike during a debate and tell China to turn out its lights, drive fewer or hybrid cars, and shutter its factories? The projected US demand for crude is actually going down. China's is going up. It's not the Arabs, it's supply and demand. This from Petroleum News, Jan. 11.

Current world crude output averages less than 72.5 million bpd, down about 2 million bpd from 27 months ago, while world oil demand, about 88 million bpd, continues to grow unchecked.

With global demand projected to grow to 115 million bpd by 2020, Simmons said numerous dangers would accompany a significant depletion of world oil supplies, including social chaos brought on by widespread hoarding as well as geopolitical conflicts that could lead to war.

“Oil shortages worry me,” he said. “China is extremely conscious of how flimsy oil supply is and is doing everything they can to lock up supply.”

Stress on Grandparents

I wrote this about 4 years ago--just came across it today. Maybe I'll have to go online and double check:

. . . it was reported in WSJ that Harvard University researchers found a 55% greater risk of heart disease among grandmothers who care for their grandchildren than those who don’t. 36.3% of U.S. grandparents provide intermediate or extensive care for their grandchildren. One theory about the stress is that there are other events in the lives of their adult children, such as divorce or substance abuse, that causes the parents to have to help out, thus causing a lot of stress. And those of us with no grandchildren have a 47.95% greater risk of a broken heart. (I made that up.)

This site has all sorts of links on grandparenting. The original research was published in Am J Public Health. 2003 November; 93(11): 1939–1944. "Caregiving to Children and Grandchildren and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women," by Sunmin Lee, ScD, and others.

We haven't seen health problems among our friends and relatives who care for their grandchildren, but we do see some social problems. They are definitely less available to go out of an evening--either pooped, or doing something with the grandkids--and when we visit my sister-in-law, conversation is somewhat limited if she is watching two or three great-grandchildren, so their grandmothers (her daughters) can catch a break from babysitting!

This research hit a nerve

I read about the cell phone drivers slowing everyone down during commutes last week in the WSJ, but when I googled the story today, that story seemed to be in every paper. It's the kind of thing everyone suspects is true, and then when someone really does the research, it's an Ah-ha moment. Here's the abstract from the research paper done at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Department of Psychology at the University of Utah and prepared for the Transportation Research Board:

ABSTRACT
This research examined the effect of naturalistic, hands-free, cell phone conversation on driver’s lane-changing behavior. Thirty-six undergraduate psychology students drove six 9.2-mile scenarios, in a simulated highway environment, with three levels of traffic density. Participants were instructed only to obey the speed limit and to signal when making a lane change. These simple driving instructions allowed participants to freely vary driving behaviors such as following distance, speed, and lane-changing maneuvers. Results indicated that, when drivers conversed on the cell phone, they made fewer lane changes, had a lower overall mean speed, and a significant increase in travel time in the medium and high density driving conditions. Drivers on the cell phone were also much more likely to remain behind a slower moving lead vehicle than drivers in single-task condition. No effect of cell phone conversation on following distance was observed. Possible implications on traffic flow characteristics are discussed. "Drivers’ Lane Changing Behavior While Conversing On a Cell Phone in a Variable Density Simulated Highway Environment" pdf here

Maybe slowing people down isn't all that bad and will reduce problems later. However, I know that accidents are caused by people distracted by their phones, although conversation with passengers doesn't seem to have the same affect. What bothers me is when I see the little faces of the children and babies, strapped in and bored, with mommy chatting away ignoring the opportunity to interact with them. Dumped even before the day-care door.

Where that strange environmental data come from

Thirteen hundred gallons of water to produce a quarter-pounder? That's based on an ag extension report given to a high school class 30 years ago, according to this interesting article in the Wall St. Journal Friday. Pardon the pun but it depends on whose ox you want to gore. Carl Bailik provides a number of alternative figures. He says at his blog:

A respected nonprofit focused on water education repeated the number in pamphlets and other material. A scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey saw the pamphlet and used the stat for a USGS water-facts Web site. And once the estimate became a USGS stat, it was amplified and repeated — on other government sites, on PBS.org, on a bottled-water trade group site, in university newspapers and in other publications. It even showed up in the office elevator of Numbers Guy reader Joe Penrose, who saw the stat on the Captivate Network screen as a “fun fact” and emailed me to suggest I look into it.

But whoever you believe, we can live without oil, but we can't live without water, and using up our water to grow crops to burn in our automobiles to satisfy environmentalists who go crazy at the thought of the internal combustion engine and melting glaciers is just silly.

Where's the winning team?

The United States has been wimping out and backing off since 1945. And we'll do it again, apparently, if we elect a Democrat, because they sure don't want to talk about the Iraq War. Fred Thompson (R) said (paraphrase) that you can tell we're winning because the New York Times has stopped writing about it. And the candidates have stopped talking about it. But if we elect Hillary or Obama or Edwards, what will they do with the recent successes in Iraq? Turn it over to the Iranians? Al-Qaeda? Hussein wanna-be's? Will they allow all the folks who are trying to build a democracy to be plowed under?

Bret Stephens (WSJ 1-8-08) commented that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid with nothing to overcome other than Republican opposition really haven't done as well as the democratically elected Prime Ministers of Iraq who have been beseiged by al-Qaeda and Iranian backed militia. The reviewer of The Coldest War wrote:

"Korea was a war waged by a centrist Democratic administration and undermined at home by the Republican right.

Two decades later another war effort, in Vietnam, was undermined by the radical left.

And today that scenario is being repeated as the Democratic left, virtually every Democratic candidate, is demanding that the U.S. abandon Iraq."

Deja Vu all over again

"How good is government medical care?" asks Osler L. Peterson. Has a familiar ring, doesn't it? You really think you're reading today's arguments about healthcare--the fact that European countries already have it and their citizens are doing fine, that many elderly are suffering under high costs, and that there are already programs for the poor. But it was published in The Atlantic Monthly in September 1960 (the month I got married). This wakes you up.

"The Health Insurance Institute estimates that “getting sick and getting well” will cost the average American $105 in 1960. This sum will be distributed about as follows: $34 for the hospital, $26 for the doctor, $28 for medicines, $11.50 for the dentist, and $5.50 for other costs. The average United States family in 1957-1958 spent a little over $300 for medical care. These averages are influenced by many factors. Those with hospital insurance received more care than those without, and families with higher incomes spent more than those with smaller ones."

Using Measuring Worth (which only goes through 2006) we can look at several ways to see $105, the CPI probably being the most familiar.

In 2006, $105.00 from 1960 is worth:

$714.65 using the Consumer Price Index
$581.70 using the GDP deflator
using the value of consumer bundle *
$849.03 using the unskilled wage
$1,586.70 using the nominal GDP per capita
$2,631.92 using the relative share of GDP

I don't know if there is an accurate figure on health care costs--it depends on what think tank and which lobbyist are beholden to which party. I know ours is terribly high and we have "government health care," i.e. Medicare. This site says it is over $6,000 per person a year--not the best, just the most expensive.

What's probably changed since 1960 is indigent care. The son of a friend recently had an appendectomy--was hospitalized four or five days. He is unemployed and uninsured. It cost him nothing at the hospital down the road where it is $5,000+ a day to have a room in which to recover, and that doesn't cover the doctor and lab costs. If he'd been insured, he would have had a deductible and a co-pay, and the hospital might have had strict insurance guidelines on how long he could stay, or his employer might have lost its coverage. Under managed care, doctors and hospitals are no longer allowed to do what's best for the patient, only what's best for the bottom line. Imagine how much worse it will be with a committee of bureaucrats. The Katrina Care Plan, I like to call it.

But another thing that has changed since 1960 is heroic measures for people with a very limited life expectancy. An 85 year old dear man we know has several systems failing at once. Any one of them could kill him, but he had surgery this week for the most serious--he was given only 2 months to live if this wasn't repaired. I truly don't know what I would do if it were me, or my parent or husband, and none of us do until it happens to us. My mother had surgery for colon cancer in her 80s and had another wonderful five years with her family and husband, celebrating 65 years of marriage, dying of something totally unrelated. My father had a heart by-pass when he was 70 and lived another 19 years, needing to replace a few pacemakers and outliving some of his doctors.

Do you have the answers to how much is too much? Because you know well, without private supplemental policies, none of the above examples would be covered under Katrina Care.