Saturday, September 09, 2017

Irma, Harvey and Climate Change

Has climate change created fewer hurricanes?  Something to think about. Things have been historically quiet since Katrina, when it was predicted that we were in for terrible storms. I’m watching TV with non-stop coverage, and they still don’t know where Irma will go even with deserted streets and hunkered down people who aren’t leaving. So why do these climate mystics and gurus think they know what will happen next month or next year or in 2030? We even have better technology, and drones, since 2005 and they still have computer models that look like a plate of spaghetti on the floor.  They should look backwards.  Last week I was walking on the shores of Lake Erie, the shoreline of 10,000 years ago on 6th street.  Absolutely climate change exists.
“What ensued [after Katrina] was an historically unprecedented 12-year absence of major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes making landfall in the United States, until Harvey, which ties for 14th-most intense hurricane since 1851. The events after 2005 were “consistent with” some projections, but any other events would have been as well.The long absence of landfalling hurricanes also points to another problem when opinion writers connect GHGs [greenhouse gases] to extreme weather. Science needs to be concerned not only with conspicuous things that happened, but with things that conspicuously didn’t happen. Like the famous dog in the Sherlock Holmes story, the bark that doesn’t happen can be the most important of all. 
It is natural to consider a hurricane a disruptive event that demands an explanation. It is much more difficult to imagine nice weather as a disruption to bad weather that somehow never happened.”

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