Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Long term problems, guest blogger Jeffrey Verasano

Some sobering thoughts about our future, many I'd been thinking myself--the swamp of unelected sycophants in DC is indicative of all the institutions around us, many of which we've willingly chosen. 


"There are several long-term problems that seem insurmountable.

  • - The demographic time bomb has already been set
  • - Most major institutions have been subverted from the inside as the Long March through the institutions reaches its peak. It's a lot harder to rebuild these then to destroy them. Being mad at liberal insanity is easy. Running for the school board, replacing principals and teachers, and rebuilding University education degree programs is a lot harder. Rebuilding Church attendance, taking over the bureaucracies. These are multi-decade challenges and I don't see any plan to even begin. [This is REALLY sobering}
  • - The right is angry but the left is relentless. The very nature of the right being individualistic, versus the left being collective, puts the right at a long-term systemic disadvantage.
  • - The default form of government is an oligarchal hierarchy, typically a monarchy or similar. Continuous centralization of power is natural whereas checks and balances are complex and artificial, historically present when rare circumstances align. We had those for a while but no longer do. Thus we see a relentless return to the default.
  • - Empires occur in cycles and don't last forever. Whether you look at the Tytler cycle or others that have been written about, it is clear that's great societies arise out of specific values but once arisen their very success breeds alternate values which makes sustaining the empire nearly impossible. Courage breeds success, but success breeds laziness and ingratitude, plus attracts parasites and competitors.

Of course, the timeline for these civilization scale changes is up in the air and collapse could be put off for our lifetimes. But empires don't last forever and all the forces that have killed others are glaringly visible and on the rise. Other civilizations have had people just like us, who screamed warnings. Some of these may have created temporary patches, but no permanent solution is ever found.

The huge wild card is artificial intelligence. That is unlike any factor ever faced by mankind. In a generation or two the need to work and the competition that breeds will be all but eliminated, as robotics will multiply the productive capacity many, many times. But controlling AI may be impossible. The normal rules would have us comparing the geopolitical strategies and capacities of China, Islam, Marxists and Constitutionalists. But AI as a force will dwarf all of these.

So who knows..."

No comments: