2979 How do you count a dead Iraqi? As many times as possible.

Steven E. Moore points out in today's Wall St. Journal the many holes in the methods and conclusions of the Johns Hopkins war dead study done in Iraq. Instead of an error margin of plus or minus 3 or 5%, he estimates 1200%.

"[T]he key to the validity of cluster sampling is to use enough cluster points. In their 2006 report, "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional sample survey," the Johns Hopkins team says it used 47 cluster points for their sample of 1,849 interviews. This is astonishing: I wouldn't survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points."

Other studies, other cluster points, pointed out in the article:

For its 2004 survey of Iraq, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) used 2,200 cluster points of 10 interviews each for a total sample of 21,688.

A 2005 survey conducted by ABC News, Time magazine, the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel used 135 cluster points with a sample size of 1,711. . .

The International Rescue Committee in the Democratic Republic of Congo, used 750 cluster points

Harvard's School of Public Health, in a 1992 survey of Iraq, used 271 cluster points.

Another study in Kosovo cites the use of 50 cluster points, but this was for a population of just 1.6 million, compared to Iraq's 27 million.

Let's have a do-over.