Friday, May 06, 2022

As we merge lanes from pandemic to endemic

From an investment letter: "It is now clear from the data that Sweden, which never shut down other than for the very old and nursing homes, did not do worse than those that did shut down, and their kids got to go to in person school throughout. Florida never fully shut down for long, and reopened quickly relative to the rest of the country. While the mainstream media and the Biden administration blasted DeSantis, reality is, business here reopened fairly quickly for the most part, and recovered quickly, and the health issues, including hospitalization and death, were no worse per capita than CA which shut down completely, and kept kids out of school. It is my view that Fauci and the teachers’ unions did more damage to the country than the pandemic ever did. Many people died of untreated diseases like cancer and heart conditions as a result of the shutdowns. They never counted that. I have a tennis buddy whose prostate cancer spread because he could not get to see a doctor in time to prevent it. The Fauci ordered lockdowns did grave damage to the economy, and led to the $6 trillion of new debt we now have.

Were things left mostly open after the first wave, with certain restrictions and certain rules, and personal choice as to exposure, once the vaccines were available, it is far from clear there would have been a much worse Covid outcome based on the Swedish and Florida experience, when you take all the collateral damage of closure into account. Meantime the increased government spending is a disaster, and has created what many of us long predicted-inflation running out of control. The topper was the Rescue Plan in March 2021 for which there was no need other than for the money to be used to bail out Dem state and city governments which were in massive debt, and to illegally redirect billions to teach CRT. Meantime hundreds of billions are believed to have been stolen through fraud in the unemployment payments and PPP. If there had been a limited PPP, and money strictly for Covid vaccines, we would have saved trillions, and been far better off today. Had there been minimal lockdowns, there would have been no need for the extra unemployment and food stamp payments, and no non-eviction and no extension or canceling of student loans. We would not be experiencing the labor shortage to the extent we are now doing.

Maybe some more people might have become sick or died, but the trade was destruction of an entire generation of kids who were kept out of class, and real destruction of black kids who did not have good access to wireless service. We would not have the inflation which is hurting the lower and middle class and we would likely have had a moderate stock market instead of the huge runups we had."

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