Sunday, February 22, 2009

The painful fence straddle at Kiplinger Connection (AIA)

The opening paragraph proclaims the stimulus WILL work (for architects). Then it’s like someone slapped him upside the head . . .that Treasury will “get its act together soon” . . . "Businesses will wait to rehire until they’re sure that any pickup in demand will last." And finally, the truth dawns.
    We’ll never know if the stimulus really worked. There are no do-overs, so we won’t be able to tell what would have happened if a different path were taken.

    Because recessions run their course, eventual improvement is inevitable, helped by low interest rates as well as low prices for gasoline and other commodities. But a lack of confidence among consumers and companies and the halt in spending and hiring threaten to keep the economy from recuperating fully for several years.

    Throwing billions at the problems means soaring deficits and inflation later. But policymakers see those as the least of the evils they face. And it will help efforts to keep deflation from getting out of control. That would lead to a downward spiral that could get vicious and certainly would result in a much longer, deeper recession.
So, what these financial gurus are saying we're throwing money at a problem that would resolve itself in say 3 years instead of 11 or 12 if government would just stand back. And not a word about nationalizing so many industries and making us a socialist economy in the meanwhile. Which is really the excuse for this massive infusion of money. Maybe architects don't care? As long as they can play with their computer assisted design and have buildings that won't last 30 years (more jobs for the future), who cares who the employer is?

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